Liga MX match prediction: Little separates Atlas and Toluca in quality

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Competition: Mexico Liga MX
Competition: Fri 14.August
Match begins: 00:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Jalisco (70000 seats)

The Liga MX season is still fresh and sports bettors should be cautious. This meeting between Atlas and Toluca promises to be an interesting one.

Atlas have less rest than Toluca in this fixture, as the hosts were involved in a Liga MX game only four days ago. That game was an away game at Atlético San Luis, so at least Atlas are thankful to return home in this one. Game on!

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Atlas form and stats

Atlas's first Liga MX home game here at Estadio Jalisco ended in defeat. Last season their home statistics were 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 matches.

Atlas shared the glory with Atlético San Luis in their last match, an away game that ended all square 1-1. Before that game, the home loss against Pumas UNAM with the scoreline 1-2.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Atlas have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found six matches with the results: Won three, drawn zero and lost three.

There will be little rest for Atlas after this match as they are travelling to Santos Laguna for a Liga MX game in only three days.

Early season league goal statistics from Atlas's 1 home game: 1 goal, 2 conceded.

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Toluca form and stats

No Liga MX points yet away for Toluca, from their first 2 matches. Toluca seem to be suffering from homesickness with two consecutive losses away. Third time lucky?

Toluca lost away at Mazatlán (1-2) in their previous game and are perhaps starting to feel homesick. A home win before that, celebrating 3-2 vs Atlético San Luis.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Toluca playing away and similar expectations, we found twelve relevant matches. Results were one Toluca win, one draw and ten defeats.

A new game in only three days for Toluca, the Liga MX home match versus Tigres UANL. Busy days.

2 goals so far away for Toluca, while their defence has allowed the opposition to score 5. All from 2 league matches away.

Head 2 Head

Atlas-Toluca H2H statistics last ten meetings regardless of arena: Atlas three wins, Toluca six wins, one draw. six of these ten matches had three or more goals (over 2,5).

Top Goalscorers

TolucaA. Canelo
A. Canelo
2 goals
TolucaM. Estrada Martínez
M. Estrada Martínez
2 goals
AtlasL. Acosta
L. Acosta
1 goals

Atlas missing players

Toluca missing players

Atlas Toluca
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
3 1 0 Played P 0 2 3
0 0 0 Won W 0 0 1
1 0 0 Drew D 0 0 0
2 1 0 Lost L 0 2 2
3 1 0 Scored S 0 2 5
6 2 0 Conceded C 0 5 7
100% 100% 0% Over 0.5 O 0.5 0% 100% 100%
100% 100% 0% Over 1.5 O 1.5 0% 100% 100%
67% 100% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 100% 100%
33% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 50% 67%
0% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 33%
100% 100% 0% BTTS BTTS 0% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% Failed to Score F T 0% 0% 0%
 
8 7 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 5.5 5.7
3 2 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 2 3.7
2.7 3 0 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 0 2 2.7
1 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
29 11 0 Total Shots T S 0 25 37
8 5 0 Shots on Target S O 0 10 16
38% 20% 0% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 20% 31%
Key stats in Liga MX this season:
  • Atlas has the fewest points (0) at home
  • Toluca has the fewest matches under the total-line (0)
  • Toluca has the most conceded goals (5) away
  • Toluca has the most conceded goals (7)
  • Toluca has the most conceded goals in the first half (5)
  • Toluca has the most matches over the total-line (3)
Atlas Last season Toluca
Total Home   Statistics Stat   Away Total
28 14   Played P   14 28
9 4   Won W   2 6
3 1   Drew D   6 9
16 9   Lost L   6 13
29 14   Scored S   10 32
43 20   Conceded C   20 44
100% 100%   Over 0.5 O 0.5   100% 100%
75% 79%   Over 1.5 O 1.5   79% 86%
50% 50%   Over 2.5 O 2.5   21% 36%
21% 14%   Over 3.5 O 3.5   14% 32%
7% 0%   Over 4.5 O 4.5   0% 14%
54% 50%   BTTS BTTS   50% 54%
18% 21%   Clean Sheets C S   14% 18%
29% 29%   Failed to Score F T   36% 29%
 
3.6 3.7   Corners for (avg) C F   4.9 4.9
4.8 4.4   Corners against (avg) C A   5.2 5.3
2.2 2.5   Yellow cards (avg) Y C   1.9 2.2
7 4   Red cards R C   1 4
 
282 146   Total Shots T S   139 300
93 48   Shots on Target S O   36 80
31% 29%   Goal Efficiency G E   28% 40%

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 América 3 2 1 0 7 2 1 1 0 0 4 0 2 1 1 0 3 2 5 7
2 Puebla 3 2 1 0 6 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 5 1 4 7
3 Cruz Azul 3 2 1 0 5 1 2 2 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 4 7
4 Pumas UNAM 3 2 1 0 6 4 2 1 1 0 4 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 7
5 Tigres UANL 3 1 2 0 4 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 3 0 3 5
6 Juárez 3 1 2 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 1 5
7 Monterrey 3 1 1 1 5 4 2 1 1 0 5 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 4
8 Santos Laguna 3 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 1 2 4 0 4
9 Pachuca 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 4
10 León 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 -1 4
11 Mazatlán 3 1 1 1 4 6 2 1 0 1 3 5 1 0 1 0 1 1 -2 4
12 Tijuana 3 1 1 1 3 5 2 1 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 -2 4
13 Toluca 3 1 0 2 5 7 1 1 0 0 3 2 2 0 0 2 2 5 -2 3
14 Atlético San Luis 3 0 2 1 4 5 2 0 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 -1 2
15 Querétaro 3 0 1 2 3 5 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 4 -2 1
16 Atlas 3 0 1 2 3 6 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 4 -3 1
17 Guadalajara 3 0 1 2 0 3 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 -3 1
18 Necaxa 3 0 1 2 1 5 2 0 1 1 1 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 -4 1
Last season Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Cruz Azul 10 7 1 2 24 14 5 4 0 1 13 6 5 3 1 1 11 8 10 22
2 León 10 7 0 3 23 14 5 5 0 0 14 4 5 2 0 3 9 10 9 21
3 Santos Laguna 10 5 2 3 14 14 5 4 1 0 9 5 5 1 1 3 5 9 0 17
4 América 10 5 2 3 11 11 5 2 0 3 4 7 5 3 2 0 7 4 0 17
5 Guadalajara 10 4 4 2 13 11 5 2 2 1 8 5 5 2 2 1 5 6 2 16
6 Pumas UNAM 10 4 3 3 20 19 5 3 1 1 11 6 5 1 2 2 9 13 1 15
7 Tigres UANL 10 4 2 4 13 10 5 4 1 0 11 3 5 0 1 4 2 7 3 14
8 Juárez 10 4 2 4 20 18 5 2 1 2 11 11 5 2 1 2 9 7 2 14
9 Morelia 10 4 2 4 17 16 5 1 1 3 8 8 5 3 1 1 9 8 1 14
10 Puebla 10 4 2 4 7 7 5 1 2 2 4 4 5 3 0 2 3 3 0 14
11 Pachuca 10 4 2 4 11 12 5 3 2 0 5 1 5 1 0 4 6 11 -1 14
12 Querétaro 10 4 2 4 13 15 4 1 1 2 5 4 6 3 1 2 8 11 -2 14
13 Atlético San Luis 10 3 4 3 11 15 5 2 1 2 7 8 5 1 3 1 4 7 -4 13
14 Necaxa 10 3 2 5 17 16 5 1 2 2 8 8 5 2 0 3 9 8 1 11
15 Toluca 10 2 4 4 16 18 5 1 1 3 11 12 5 1 3 1 5 6 -2 10
16 Tijuana 10 2 3 5 10 16 6 2 2 2 6 6 4 0 1 3 4 10 -6 9
17 Atlas 10 3 0 7 10 17 5 1 0 4 4 9 5 2 0 3 6 8 -7 9
18 Monterrey 10 0 5 5 10 17 5 0 3 2 6 8 5 0 2 3 4 9 -7 5

Read more about Liga MX

Liga MX is the top division in the Mexican football league system. Each season the league has two tournaments, Apertura (opening) and Clausura (closing). This means that the Liga MX has two champions per season. The Liga MX is the fourth most attended football league in the world.