Liga MX forecast and pre-match guide: Toluca modest front runner to beat Atlético San Luis

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Competition: Mexico Liga MX
Competition: Sun 26.February
Match begins: 18:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez (31000 seats)

There's seemingly a noteworthy gulf in performance between these teams based on the league table so far, with Toluca in front of Atlético San Luis by 9 points.

Insights:
  • Toluca have the most points from losing position (19) in Liga MX
  • Atlético San Luis have the fewest scored goals (15) in Liga MX

These are active days for the home side, as they played only three days ago in the Liga MX. At least it's nice to return home after that away game at Santos Laguna.

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Toluca form and stats

The complete Liga MX statistics playing at home this season for Toluca are 4-4-1 (wins-draws-losses).

Toluca enjoyed a nice away win last time out, playing at Santos Laguna's place. The match ended 5-0 with García (2), Fernández (2) and Ruíz scoring. As mentioned above, Toluca "killed" Santos Laguna in their previous game. They need to reset completely for this one and beware of complacency. García was "man of the match" with a rating of 9.4 out of 10. The defender García scored two goals and won 5 of 7 duels.

In the game before, an away victory match versus Pachuca with a 2-1 scoreline.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Toluca have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found 13 games) they have won 9 times, drawn 2 and lost 2.

If you like betting on "both teams to score": A review of the 19 most recent league games reveals that 15 of them had at least one goal from each side.

The Toluca fans have had their share of opportunities to cheer home goals this season, having seen 17 goals in 9 league matches. 13 goals have been conceded.

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Atlético San Luis form and stats

The visitors are W2-D4-L2 on the road this term. That's in the Liga MX.

Atlético played 1-1 against Santos Laguna in their previous match. Chávez was the top performer of the team in that game with a match score of 8.2. The defender Chávez hit four key passes and won 18 of 22 duels.

A loss against América was the result prior to that, in a home game.

We have checked recent matches where Atlético San Luis have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those 15 games were 4 victories, 2 draws and 9 defeats.

11 goals have been conceded by Atlético San Luis in these games. Atlético has visited these top teams four times, and 3 of 4 has ended with 2 goals or more!

Head 2 Head

Here's what happened when the squads met previously this season; Atlético San Luis - Toluca 1-0. Previous six meetings involving these sides: Toluca won three, Atlético San Luis were winners in two and we saw one draw. three games with over 2,5 goals, three matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

TolucaC. Da Silva Sanvezzo
C. Da Silva Sanvezzo
10 goals
TolucaL. Fernández López
L. Fernández López
8 goals
TolucaJ. Meneses Villarroel
J. Meneses Villarroel
8 goals

Toluca missing players

Atlético San Luis missing players

Toluca Atlético San Luis
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
32 16 4 Played P 4 12 25
15 8 3 Won W 0 3 6
10 6 1 Drew D 1 5 9
7 2 0 Lost L 3 4 10
56 32 12 Scored S 2 12 23
44 25 6 Conceded C 10 17 33
91% 88% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 75% 83% 80%
81% 88% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 75% 67% 64%
66% 75% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 75% 42% 44%
44% 56% 100% Over 3.5 O 3.5 50% 33% 24%
22% 31% 50% Over 4.5 O 4.5 25% 17% 12%
75% 81% 100% BTTS BTTS 50% 58% 52%
19% 19% 0% Clean Sheets C S 25% 25% 32%
16% 12% 0% Failed to Score F T 50% 33% 36%
 
5.1 6.4 6.5 Corners for (avg) C F 2.8 4.1 4
5.7 4.5 6 Corners against (avg) C A 6.5 6.3 6.2
2.3 2.4 1.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2.2 1.8 2
6 4 2 Red cards R C 0 1 3
 
13.9 16.2 18.8 Shots (avg) S ( 7 9.2 10.1
5.5 6.2 8.2 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2.5 3.5 3.3
32% 32% 36% Goal Efficiency G E 20% 29% 28%
 
16.2 15.3 17.5 Shots against (avg) S A 19 19.2 17.9
4.8 4.8 4.2 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 6.8 5.2 5.4
Key stats in Liga MX this season:
  • Atlético San Luis have the fewest scored goals (15) in Liga MX
  • Toluca have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Toluca have scored more than double the goals of Atlético San Luis.
  • Toluca have the most points from losing position (19) in Liga MX
  • Toluca have won significantly more corners at home than away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 América 17 12 2 3 38 17 8 6 2 0 20 6 9 6 0 3 18 11 21 38
2 Monterrey 17 10 5 2 29 13 8 5 3 0 14 5 9 5 2 2 15 8 16 35
3 Santos Laguna 17 10 3 4 38 21 9 8 1 0 24 7 8 2 2 4 14 14 17 33
4 Pachuca 17 9 5 3 28 15 9 6 2 1 17 6 8 3 3 2 11 9 13 32
5 Tigres UANL 17 9 3 5 24 14 8 5 1 2 12 6 9 4 2 3 12 8 10 30
6 Toluca 17 7 6 4 27 23 9 4 4 1 17 13 8 3 2 3 10 10 4 27
7 Cruz Azul 17 7 3 7 26 34 9 5 1 3 15 12 8 2 2 4 11 22 -8 24
8 Puebla 17 4 10 3 25 23 9 3 5 1 13 11 8 1 5 2 12 12 2 22
9 Guadalajara 17 5 7 5 19 17 9 3 4 2 7 7 8 2 3 3 12 10 2 22
10 Leon 17 6 4 7 25 29 8 4 2 2 16 14 9 2 2 5 9 15 -4 22
11 Juárez 17 4 7 6 17 18 9 2 5 2 11 10 8 2 2 4 6 8 -1 19
12 Necaxa 17 5 4 8 19 26 8 3 1 4 11 15 9 2 3 4 8 11 -7 19
13 Atlético San Luis 17 4 6 7 15 23 9 2 2 5 7 12 8 2 4 2 8 11 -8 18
14 Mazatlan 17 3 8 6 17 24 8 2 3 3 9 12 9 1 5 3 8 12 -7 17
15 Tijuana 17 4 5 8 18 30 8 2 2 4 9 13 9 2 3 4 9 17 -12 17
16 Pumas UNAM 17 2 8 7 21 31 9 2 4 3 11 15 8 0 4 4 10 16 -10 14
17 Atlas 17 3 4 10 16 27 8 3 2 3 10 10 9 0 2 7 6 17 -11 13
18 Queretaro 17 1 6 10 18 35 8 1 4 3 10 13 9 0 2 7 8 22 -17 9

Read more about Liga MX

Liga MX is the top division in the Mexican football league system. Each season the league has two tournaments, Apertura (opening) and Clausura (closing). This means that the Liga MX has two champions per season. The Liga MX is the fourth most attended football league in the world.