Home advantage could prove decisive in Toronto - Cincinnati battle

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Competition: USA Major League Soccer
Competition: Sat 30.April
Match begins: 19:00 (UTC)
Venue: BMO Field (30991 seats)

Toronto have 11 points performing as the hosts. Cincinnati have brought back 7 points as the visiting team. Could we look at anything else than a home win?

Insights:
  • Toronto have the most scored goals in the first half (10) in Major League Soccer
  • Cincinnati have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored away.

Toronto and Cincinnati should both be in good shape for this meeting, as there's been enough days for both of them to train and rest since their last matches.

L W D W W

Toronto form and stats

Toronto have collected 9 points from their Major League Soccer home games so far after 3-0-1. There’s a good atmosphere here at BMO Field after three straight home wins.

Toronto faced defeat in their previous match, away at New York City (4-5). A disaster for the home team in their last match (vs New York City) as a comfortable lead 2-0 was completely ruined into a loss 4-5. Toronto's goalkeeper Bono was extremely busy against New York City, saving the team from a uglier defeat with a stunning six saves. Pozuelo, an attacker, was the highest rated player for the side in that game, scoring a rating of 8.01 (out of 10). Pozuelo signed up for two assists, hit four key passes and had 38 successful passes (of 46 total).

Ahead of that match, Toronto won a home game hosting Philadelphia Union (2-1).

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Toronto have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found nine games) they have won four times, drawn three and lost two.

There will be little rest for Toronto after this match as they are travelling to Cincinnati for a Major League Soccer game in only four days.

The Toronto fans have had their share of opportunities to cheer home goals this season, having seen 7 goals in 4 league matches. With more than 1,5 conceded goals on average, the Toronto defense is not exactly impregnable. 7 goals conceded from 4 games. You can find more goal stats on the Statistics tab above.

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Cincinnati form and stats

1-1-2 is the win-draw-loss statistic for Cincinnati in their Major League Soccer matches away.

Cincinnati failed to get anything from their last game, a home match vs Los Angeles FC that ended with defeat 1-2. It is probably bad news for Cincinnati that their goalie Celentano managed six saves in the Los Angeles FC game, but still were unable to prevent a defeat. The attacker Badji got a match rating of 7.64 in that game. Badji hit two key passes and dribled past the opponent 2 of 2 times.

We have checked recent matches where Cincinnati have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those nine games were two victories, two draws and five defeats.

The visitors are returning home after this fixture, hosting Toronto in just four days.

There's been a serious shortage of goals from Cincinnati's away games in the league this season with only 2 goals from 4 matches.

Head 2 Head

As for the last six games between these two teams, there's four Toronto victories, zero draws and two Cincinnati wins. Over/under statistics; three of these games ended with three goals or more, three matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

TorontoJ. Jiménez Núñez
J. Jiménez Núñez
6 goals
CincinnatiB. Vázquez Toledo
B. Vázquez Toledo
5 goals
TorontoA. Pozuelo Melero
A. Pozuelo Melero
2 goals

Toronto missing players

Cincinnati missing players

Toronto Cincinnati
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
8 4 1 Played P 1 4 8
3 3 1 Won W 0 1 2
2 0 0 Drew D 0 1 1
3 1 0 Lost L 1 2 5
15 7 2 Scored S 0 2 9
17 7 1 Conceded C 2 8 16
100% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 75% 88%
100% 100% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 75% 75%
88% 100% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 50% 62%
38% 25% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 25% 38%
25% 25% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 25% 25%
100% 100% 100% BTTS BTTS 0% 25% 50%
0% 0% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 25% 12%
0% 0% 0% Failed to Score F T 100% 75% 50%
 
4 4.8 5 Corners for (avg) C F 3 3.8 4.6
5.9 6 3 Corners against (avg) C A 3 5.5 4.6
1.9 2.2 4 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2 3 2.8
1 0 0 Red cards R C 0 1 1
 
7.8 7.8 9 Shots (avg) S ( 13 11.2 14
3.9 4.2 6 Shots on Target (avg) S O 5 2.2 4.8
48% 41% 33% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 22% 24%
 
16.1 15.8 12 Shots against (avg) S A 11 15.8 14.4
7.5 7.8 6 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 7 6.2 5.1
Key stats in Major League Soccer this season:
  • All of Toronto's home-matches have had more than 2,5 goals.
  • Cincinnati have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored away.
  • Cincinnati have won significantly less corners away then at home.
  • Toronto have failed to keep a clean sheet in all their matches.
  • Toronto have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Toronto have scored at least twice as many goals at home as Cincinnati have scored away.
  • Toronto have scored in all their matches so far.
  • Toronto have the fewest matches under the total-line (0) in Major League Soccer
  • Toronto have the most conceded goals in the first half (10) in Major League Soccer
  • Toronto have the most scored goals in the first half (10) in Major League Soccer
  • Toronto haven’t played a single 0-0 game.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Philadelphia Union 8 5 2 1 12 5 5 3 2 0 7 2 3 2 0 1 5 3 7 17
2 New York RB 8 4 2 2 13 6 4 0 2 2 2 4 4 4 0 0 11 2 7 14
3 Orlando City 9 4 2 3 10 10 5 2 0 3 6 9 4 2 2 0 4 1 0 14
4 Atlanta United 8 3 2 3 10 11 4 2 2 0 8 5 4 1 0 3 2 6 -1 11
5 Toronto 8 3 2 3 15 17 4 3 0 1 7 7 4 0 2 2 8 10 -2 11
6 Montreal Impact 8 3 2 3 14 17 2 1 0 1 3 3 6 2 2 2 11 14 -3 11
7 New York City 7 3 1 3 16 10 4 3 0 1 15 7 3 0 1 2 1 3 6 10
8 Chicago Fire 8 2 4 2 5 5 4 1 3 0 3 1 4 1 1 2 2 4 0 10
9 Charlotte 9 3 1 5 8 11 4 3 0 1 6 2 5 0 1 4 2 9 -3 10
10 Inter Miami 8 3 1 4 9 16 5 2 1 2 6 8 3 1 0 2 3 8 -7 10
11 Columbus Crew 8 2 3 3 10 9 4 2 0 2 6 4 4 0 3 1 4 5 1 9
12 DC United 7 3 0 4 10 10 5 2 0 3 8 8 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 9
13 New England 8 2 1 5 12 16 4 2 0 2 5 5 4 0 1 3 7 11 -4 7
14 Cincinnati 8 2 1 5 9 16 4 1 0 3 7 8 4 1 1 2 2 8 -7 7

Read more about Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer (often known simply as MLS) is the top level of football (soccer) in the United States and Canada. MLS has 24 teams divided into two conferences, Eastern and Western. Each team play 34 fixtures to decide a league table champion. The top fourteen teams then compete in playoff to crown a MLS Cup champion.