Primeira Liga match prediction: Little separates Belenenses and Tondela in quality

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Competition: Portugal Primeira Liga
Competition: Wed 01.July
Match begins: 18:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estádio Nacional (37593 seats)

This match features two teams living in the basement of the Primeira Liga, Belenenses holding 14th place and Tondela lying 15th. A good chance for both teams to improve their position.

We should expect both teams to be fresh and ready for this match, as there is some time since both teams last played. Let's have a look at how the teams are doing!

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Belenenses form and stats

Belenenses, who have the most conceded goals (23) at home in Primeira Liga, have played 14 Primeira Liga games at their own stadium so far this season, resulting in 4-3-7 (wins-draws-losses).

Belenenses's previous game was also a home match, the defeat 1-3 versus Sporting CP (placed 3rd). Heartbreak before that as Belenenses lost 1-2 at Paços de Ferreira's place.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Belenenses have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found ten matches with the results: Won one, drawn three and lost six.

There's a new game coming up fairly quickly for Belenenses as they are travelling to their away game against Porto in the Primeira Liga. That match is four days after this one.

Belenenses aren't scoring a lot here at Estádio Nacional in the league, with only 11 goals from 14 games. Belenenses have conceded 23 from these games.

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Tondela form and stats

As the visiting team in Primeira Liga matches, Tondela have produced an overall stat of 5-3-6 so far.

The manager J. González Sáenz was unhappy after their last game, a Primeira Liga match played at their home ground Estádio João Cardoso. Tondela suffered a 1-3 loss to Paços de Ferreira (placed 12th). It was a defeat before that one as the away game against Sporting CP wasn't a success with a 0-2 loss.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Tondela playing away and similar expectations, we found ten relevant matches. Results were two Tondela wins, two draws and six defeats.

A quick return to home after this game, as Tondela are hosting Famalicão in the Primeira Liga only four days away.

The attacking power of Tondela when travelling is not overwhelming with 13 goals scored from 14 league matches away. 17 goals have been conceded by Tondela in these games.

Head 2 Head

Tondela - Belenenses 0-1 was the story when these teams last met, earlier this season. As for the last ten games between these two teams, there's five Belenenses victories, four draws and one Tondela win. Over/under statistics; four of these games ended with three goals or more, six matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

BelenensesL. Pereira Carneiro
L. Pereira Carneiro
7 goals
BelenensesS. Gonçalves Varela
S. Gonçalves Varela
3 goals
TondelaJ. Almeida Machado
J. Almeida Machado
3 goals

Belenenses missing players

Tondela missing players

Belenenses Tondela
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
28 14 4 Played P 4 14 28
8 4 3 Won W 3 5 7
6 3 0 Drew D 1 3 8
14 7 1 Lost L 0 6 13
24 11 6 Scored S 5 13 23
44 23 4 Conceded C 2 17 35
86% 93% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 75% 79% 82%
68% 64% 50% Over 1.5 O 1.5 25% 50% 57%
39% 29% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 25% 36% 36%
25% 21% 25% Over 3.5 O 3.5 25% 21% 18%
14% 14% 25% Over 4.5 O 4.5 25% 21% 11%
43% 43% 50% BTTS BTTS 25% 29% 39%
29% 21% 25% Clean Sheets C S 75% 36% 32%
43% 43% 25% Failed to Score F T 25% 57% 46%
 
4.5 4.2 4.5 Corners for (avg) C F 4.8 3.3 4.2
6.2 5.3 4.2 Corners against (avg) C A 4.2 6.7 5.8
2.8 3 2.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2.8 2.6 2.1
4 2 0 Red cards R C 0 1 2
 
266 143 51 Total Shots T S 35 107 251
75 35 13 Shots on Target S O 14 36 81
32% 31% 46% Goal Efficiency G E 36% 36% 28%
Key stats in Primeira Liga this season:
  • Belenenses has the fewest scored goals in the second half (8)
  • Belenenses has the most conceded goals (23) at home
  • Belenenses has the the worst goal difference (-12) at home
  • Belenenses have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored at home.
  • Tondela have conceded at least twice as many corners as they have won away.
  • Tondela have won significantly less corners away then at home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Porto 28 21 4 3 56 18 14 12 1 1 31 6 14 9 3 2 25 12 38 67
2 Benfica 28 20 4 4 59 21 14 9 2 3 31 11 14 11 2 1 28 10 38 64
3 Sporting CP 28 16 4 8 45 29 14 10 0 4 22 12 14 6 4 4 23 17 16 52
4 Sporting Braga 28 15 5 8 46 32 14 8 3 3 25 18 14 7 2 5 21 14 14 50
5 Famalicão 28 12 9 7 44 43 14 7 4 3 25 22 14 5 5 4 19 21 1 45
6 Rio Ave 28 12 8 8 38 29 14 4 5 5 19 17 14 8 3 3 19 12 9 44
7 Vitória SC 28 10 10 8 46 32 14 6 4 4 23 13 14 4 6 4 23 19 14 40
8 Santa Clara 28 10 8 10 29 34 14 5 3 6 13 18 14 5 5 4 16 16 -5 38
9 Moreirense 28 8 11 9 37 35 14 6 4 4 21 17 14 2 7 5 16 18 2 35
10 Boavista 28 9 8 11 23 29 14 4 4 6 14 15 14 5 4 5 9 14 -6 35
11 Gil Vicente 28 8 9 11 30 35 14 5 6 3 19 16 14 3 3 8 11 19 -5 33
12 Paços de Ferreira 28 9 4 15 26 39 14 5 2 7 12 15 14 4 2 8 14 24 -13 31
13 Vitória FC 28 6 12 10 22 35 14 3 7 4 10 15 14 3 5 6 12 20 -13 30
14 Belenenses 28 8 6 14 24 44 14 4 3 7 11 23 14 4 3 7 13 21 -20 30
15 Tondela 28 7 8 13 23 35 14 2 5 7 10 18 14 5 3 6 13 17 -12 29
16 Marítimo 28 6 10 12 27 38 14 4 6 4 19 18 14 2 4 8 8 20 -11 28
17 Portimonense 28 4 12 12 23 39 14 3 7 4 14 16 14 1 5 8 9 23 -16 24
18 Desportivo Aves 28 4 2 22 23 54 14 3 1 10 11 21 14 1 1 12 12 33 -31 14

Read more about Primeira Liga

The Primeira Liga, also known as Liga NOS, is the top level of football in Portugal. It has 18 teams each playing 34 fixtures to decide the final league table. Portuguese football is dominated by “The Big Three”: Benfica, Porto and Sporting CP (Lisbon). These three clubs generally end up in the top three positions.