Liga MX prediction and preview: Atlas modest favorites to beat Juárez

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Competition: Mexico Liga MX
Competition: Sat 06.March
Match begins: 23:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Jalisco (70000 seats)

An important duel in the bottom section of the Liga MX, with both Atlas and Juárez experiencing more worry than joy. This match is a classic "six-pointer" with the home team placed 16th and the visitors in 13th place.

Insights:
  • Atlas have the fewest scored goals in the first half (8) in Liga MX
  • Juárez have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

It’s busy days for these teams as both were in action only a few days ago. There’s no rest for the wicked, or in this case; no rest for Atlas and Juárez.

It's quite the trip for Juárez when visiting Atlas as the cities are 1500 kilometers apart.

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Atlas form and stats

With 2 Liga MX wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats from their home games, Atlas, who have the fewest points (7) at home in Liga MX, are certainly not brimming with confidence. Two home wins in a row for Atlas bring valid hopes of a third.

The Atlas supporters enjoyed the previous match, watching their team host Atletico San Luis in Liga MX and win 3-1. Preceding that game was the away draw at Toluca that finished 0-0.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Atlas have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found eight games) they have won four times, drawn zero and lost four.

The goals haven't exactly been flowing for Atlas here at Estadio Jalisco in the league, with less than one goal per game on average (5 from 8 games). It's worth mentioning that 7 of these goals has been scored in their last three home matches. On the other hand, Atlas have conceded 8 goals.

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Juárez form and stats

There's been little loot from Juárez's travels as they have only collected 6 points from 8 away games in the Liga MX. Juárez only have 1 win to counter their 4 defeats and 3 draws. Juárez has lost their two previous away games and are eager to kill a negative trend in its infancy.

Juárez might have something to prove in this game as they lost at home in their previous match. Monterrey proved too strong as Juárez slumped to a 1-6 defeat in front of their own fans at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez. A 2-3 defeat away at Santos Laguna before that.

As you can see from the result above, the defeat against Monterrey was particularly ugly (1-6). The humiliation is still top of mind.

We have checked recent matches where Juárez have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those twelve games were two victories, one draw and nine defeats.

Scoring goals is the main ingredient in creating success in football, and not only at home. So far Juárez have scored 10 goals in 8 league games away. Juárez have conceded 13 goals in these games. It's worth mentioning that 8 of these goals has been conceded in their last 3 away matches.

Head 2 Head

The teams have played each other before this season, with the result Juárez - Atlas 0-1 entered in the official records. Head-2-head stats last two meetings: two - zero - zero (Atlas wins - draws - Juárez wins). As for goals, zero matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), two had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

JuárezD. Lezcano
D. Lezcano
14 goals
AtlasV. Malcorra
V. Malcorra
5 goals
AtlasL. Acosta
L. Acosta
2 goals

Atlas missing players

Juárez missing players

Atlas Juárez
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
26 13 3 Played P 3 13 25
6 4 2 Won W 0 2 6
8 2 1 Drew D 1 4 9
12 7 0 Lost L 2 7 10
21 12 5 Scored S 4 15 23
27 14 2 Conceded C 6 24 36
88% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 92%
54% 62% 67% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 92% 68%
27% 31% 33% Over 2.5 O 2.5 67% 54% 32%
12% 8% 33% Over 3.5 O 3.5 33% 31% 20%
4% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 33% 23% 16%
42% 38% 67% BTTS BTTS 100% 77% 56%
31% 23% 33% Clean Sheets C S 0% 8% 28%
38% 38% 0% Failed to Score F T 0% 15% 24%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
2.2 2.5 3.3 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2 1.9 1.8
8 4 1 Red cards R C 1 4 6
 
12.5 13.6 13 Shots (avg) S ( 9 9.8 10.1
3 3.1 4 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2.7 2.8 2.8
27% 30% 42% Goal Efficiency G E 50% 41% 32%
Key stats in Liga MX this season:
  • Atlas have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Atlas have the fewest points (7) at home in Liga MX
  • Atlas have the fewest scored goals (5) at home in Liga MX
  • Atlas have the fewest scored goals in the first half (8) in Liga MX
  • Atlas haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.
  • Juárez have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Juárez haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Leon 17 12 4 1 27 14 8 7 1 0 15 7 9 5 3 1 12 7 13 40
2 Pumas UNAM 17 8 8 1 29 17 9 5 4 0 19 8 8 3 4 1 10 9 12 32
3 America 17 9 5 3 31 22 9 6 2 1 19 9 8 3 3 2 12 13 9 32
4 Cruz Azul 17 9 2 6 23 16 8 5 1 2 12 6 9 4 1 4 11 10 7 29
5 Monterrey 17 8 5 4 26 21 8 4 3 1 13 9 9 4 2 3 13 12 5 29
6 Tigres UANL 17 7 7 3 27 16 9 4 4 1 15 8 8 3 3 2 12 8 11 28
7 Guadalajara 17 7 5 5 20 17 9 4 3 2 11 9 8 3 2 3 9 8 3 26
8 Santos Laguna 17 7 4 6 24 20 8 5 2 1 14 5 9 2 2 5 10 15 4 25
9 Pachuca 17 6 7 4 18 14 9 3 3 3 11 10 8 3 4 1 7 4 4 25
10 Necaxa 17 7 3 7 16 20 9 4 1 4 10 12 8 3 2 3 6 8 -4 24
11 Toluca 17 6 3 8 23 28 8 5 1 2 14 9 9 1 2 6 9 19 -5 21
12 Puebla 17 6 2 9 22 25 8 2 2 4 12 13 9 4 0 5 10 12 -3 20
13 Juárez 17 4 7 6 16 19 9 3 4 2 6 6 8 1 3 4 10 13 -3 19
14 Mazatlan 17 4 4 9 24 31 8 3 2 3 11 13 9 1 2 6 13 18 -7 16
15 Tijuana 17 4 3 10 12 27 9 4 2 3 9 9 8 0 1 7 3 18 -15 15
16 Atlas 17 3 5 9 13 20 8 2 1 5 5 8 9 1 4 4 8 12 -7 14
17 Queretaro 17 3 4 10 23 28 8 3 2 3 15 11 9 0 2 7 8 17 -5 13
18 Atletico San Luis 17 3 2 12 16 35 9 2 2 5 9 18 8 1 0 7 7 17 -19 11

Read more about Liga MX

Liga MX is the top division in the Mexican football league system. Each season the league has two tournaments, Apertura (opening) and Clausura (closing). This means that the Liga MX has two champions per season. The Liga MX is the fourth most attended football league in the world.