J-League prediction and preview: Tokyo modest favorites to beat Vegalta Sendai

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Competition: Japan J-League
Competition: Sun 20.September
Match begins: 10:00 (UTC)
Venue: Ajinomoto Stadium (50100 seats)

There should be a significant difference in quality between these teams based on table positions so far, with Tokyo leading Vegalta Sendai by 21 points.

The hosts Tokyo saw competitive action as recent as four days ago, playing in the J-League. This match was also played here at Ajinomoto Stadium. With two consecutive home games the intense schedule is somewhat softened. Still, Vegalta Sendai have had more rest.

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Tokyo form and stats

When playing at home in the J-League, Tokyo have managed 4 wins, 0 draws and suffered 4 defeats from 8 games.

The Tokyo crowd went home unhappy last time out, seeing their beloved players lose 2-3 to Oita Trinita here at Ajinomoto Stadium in a J-League match. 2-2 away at Vissel Kobe before that.

The hosts are favourites to win this game, with an estimated chance of about 55-60% of that outcome. Earlier Tokyo matches with similar probabilities have ended with five wins, one draw and two defeats (from eight games).

The match schedule is unforgiving for Tokyo as they have a new game in only three days, a J-League match thankfully also at home. Cerezo Osaka are visiting.

The Tokyo fans have had their share of opportunities to cheer home goals this season, having seen 13 goals in 8 league matches. With more than 1,5 conceded goals on average, the Tokyo defense is not exactly impregnable. 13 goals conceded from 8 games. You can find more goal stats on the Statistics tab above.

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Vegalta Sendai form and stats

As the visiting team in J-League matches, Vegalta Sendai have produced an overall stat of 2-2-3 so far. Three has not been a lucky number for Vegalta Sendai as they have been defeated three times in a row since the Sanfrecce Hiroshima match.

Home advantage was not enough for Vegalta in their previous game, as they lost their J-League-match, hosting Oita Trinita, 0-3. Preceding that game, the 1-2 loss visiting Kashima Antlers's place.

As mentioned above, the odds for this match puts the home team as favourites. Perhaps this eases the pressure on the away team, who are capable of producing an upset here on a good day. Looking at earlier matches with similar odds and Vegalta Sendai playing away, we found seven games. Results were three away wins, one draw and three home wins.

Vegalta has another fixture away, a J-League game, against Yokohama F. Marinos in just three days. A tough schedule for the visitors!

Scoring goals is the main ingredient in creating success in football, and not only at home. So far Vegalta have scored 8 goals in 7 league games away. In the opposite end, Vegalta have conceded 12 goals in their away games.

Head 2 Head

H2H stats regardless of arena (last ten matches): Tokyo two wins, two draws and Vegalta Sendai six victories. As for goals, two matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), eight games had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

TokyoW. Oliveira Moura
W. Oliveira Moura
8 goals
TokyoD. Queiroz de Oliveira
D. Queiroz de Oliveira
7 goals
TokyoA. dos Santos da Silva
A. dos Santos da Silva
4 goals

Tokyo missing players

Vegalta Sendai missing players

Tokyo Vegalta Sendai
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
18 8 3 Played P 2 7 15
9 4 2 Won W 0 2 2
5 0 0 Drew D 0 2 5
4 4 1 Lost L 2 3 8
32 13 7 Scored S 2 8 15
24 13 4 Conceded C 4 12 28
94% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 93%
78% 88% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 86% 80%
67% 75% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 57% 60%
50% 38% 33% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 14% 27%
17% 25% 33% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 14% 20%
61% 50% 67% BTTS BTTS 100% 86% 73%
33% 38% 33% Clean Sheets C S 0% 14% 13%
11% 12% 0% Failed to Score F T 0% 0% 20%
 
4.2 4.1 3.7 Corners for (avg) C F 6 5.6 5.3
4.2 4.4 5 Corners against (avg) C A 6 4.6 5.9
1.3 0.9 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1 1.4 1.2
0 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
176 82 36 Total Shots T S 15 53 147
72 31 16 Shots on Target S O 4 14 51
42% 35% 44% Goal Efficiency G E 50% 57% 29%
Key stats in J-League this season:
  • Tokyo have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Tokyo have scored more than double the goals of Vegalta Sendai.
  • Tokyo haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.
  • Vegalta Sendai have scored in all their away matches so far.
  • Vegalta Sendai haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Kawasaki Frontale 17 14 2 1 52 16 9 8 1 0 28 8 8 6 1 1 24 8 36 44
2 Cerezo Osaka 17 12 3 2 26 14 8 5 2 1 10 3 9 7 1 1 16 11 12 39
3 Tokyo 18 9 5 4 32 24 8 4 0 4 13 13 10 5 5 0 19 11 8 32
4 Nagoya Grampus 15 8 3 4 24 15 7 4 1 2 13 9 8 4 2 2 11 6 9 27
5 Kashima Antlers 17 8 3 6 28 24 7 3 3 1 13 10 10 5 0 5 15 14 4 27
6 Urawa Reds 16 8 3 5 24 28 8 3 3 2 8 10 8 5 0 3 16 18 -4 27
7 Kashiwa Reysol 16 8 2 6 32 24 8 4 0 4 19 15 8 4 2 2 13 9 8 26
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 7 3 8 34 31 10 5 1 4 22 15 8 2 2 4 12 16 3 24
9 Gamba Osaka 15 7 2 6 21 21 8 3 0 5 8 12 7 4 2 1 13 9 0 23
10 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 15 6 3 6 23 19 7 3 2 2 14 9 8 3 1 4 9 10 4 21
11 Vissel Kobe 18 4 8 6 26 30 10 1 4 5 14 20 8 3 4 1 12 10 -4 20
12 Oita Trinita 17 5 4 8 20 26 8 2 3 3 7 11 9 3 1 5 13 15 -6 19
13 Consadole Sapporo 17 4 5 8 23 34 8 1 3 4 11 18 9 3 2 4 12 16 -11 17
14 Yokohama 16 5 2 9 21 33 9 3 1 5 12 18 7 2 1 4 9 15 -12 17
15 Sagan Tosu 13 3 5 5 12 15 7 2 3 2 7 6 6 1 2 3 5 9 -3 14
16 Vegalta Sendai 15 2 5 8 15 28 8 0 3 5 7 16 7 2 2 3 8 12 -13 11
17 Shonan Bellmare 15 2 3 10 14 26 7 1 2 4 4 7 8 1 1 6 10 19 -12 9
18 Shimizu S-Pulse 17 2 3 12 21 40 9 2 0 7 17 21 8 0 3 5 4 19 -19 9