Serie A forecast and preview: Salernitana small expected to get the better of Spezia

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Competition: Italy Serie A
Competition: Sat 22.October
Match begins: 13:00 (UTC)
Venue: Stadio Arechi (37245 seats)

Salernitana have taken 7 of their 10 in total here in their home stadium. Will they claim the win versus Spezia?

Insights:
  • Salernitana have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Spezia have the fewest scored goals in the second half (2) in Serie A

9-8-26 (wins/draws/losses). These are the numbers for Spezia when playing away games on grass, which is not the surface they have on their own home stadium (which has artifical turf). Their goal statistics from those 43 matches are 49-95 (scored/conceded).

There has not been much time to rest for the guests, as they played a Coppa Italia game only three days ago.

L W L L D

Salernitana form and stats

Salernitana have collected 7 points from their Serie A home games so far after 2-1-2.

In their previous game, the manager Nicola led his Salernitana to a defeat away at Inter. The manager is hoping to put things right immediately here at Stadio Arechi. Dia, a natural forward, was the champion player for the side in that fixture, and was presented with a rating of 7.05 (out of 10). Dia hit two key passes.

Before that, Salernitana had a home game versus Hellas Verona which ended with a victory 2-1.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Salernitana have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found 5 games) they have won 3 times, drawn 1 and lost 1.

The Salernitana fans have had their share of opportunities to cheer home goals this season, having seen 9 goals in 5 league matches. On the other hand, Salernitana have conceded 6 goals.

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Spezia form and stats

0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses. That’s the product of Spezia playing as the away team in the Serie A this season. It's all red in the travel logs of Spezia, having lost five matches in a row as the visiting team.

The regulars enjoyed Spezia's previous match versus Brescia, a Coppa Italia win (3-1) played at home. The attacker Strelec got a match rating of 8.33 in that game. Strelec scored two goals.

Preceding that match was the 2-2 draw at home vs Cremonese.

We have checked recent matches where Spezia have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those 12 games were 2 victories, 5 draws and 5 defeats.

The Spezia manager Gotti has some worries about the defense as 12 goals have been conceded in these travels.

Head 2 Head

Spezia have avoided a loss in the last 5 matches (4-1-0) against Salernitana.

Top Goalscorers

SalernitanaB. Dia
B. Dia
4 goals
SpeziaM. N'Zola
M. N'Zola
4 goals
SalernitanaK. Piątek
K. Piątek
2 goals

Salernitana missing players

Spezia missing players

Salernitana Spezia
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
10 5 3 Played P 2 5 10
2 2 2 Won W 0 0 2
4 1 0 Drew D 0 0 3
4 2 1 Lost L 2 5 5
12 9 7 Scored S 0 0 9
16 6 3 Conceded C 5 12 19
90% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 100%
80% 80% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 80% 80%
60% 80% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 50% 40% 60%
40% 40% 33% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 20% 40%
10% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 0%
50% 60% 67% BTTS BTTS 0% 0% 40%
20% 20% 33% Clean Sheets C S 0% 0% 10%
40% 20% 0% Failed to Score F T 100% 100% 50%
 
4.3 4.2 3.7 Corners for (avg) C F 3.5 4.8 4.8
4.5 4.6 4.7 Corners against (avg) C A 8.5 6.6 5.9
2.4 2.4 2 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1 1.6 2.2
2 1 1 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
13 13.8 12.7 Shots (avg) S ( 6.5 9 10.4
3.9 4.8 5.7 Shots on Target (avg) S O 1 1.6 3
31% 38% 41% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 0% 30%
 
15.7 15 14 Shots against (avg) S A 18.5 17.2 17.6
5.3 4.8 4.3 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 5.5 5.4 5.9
Key stats in Serie A this season:
  • Salernitana have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Salernitana have scored at least twice as many goals at home as Spezia have scored away.
  • Salernitana haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.
  • Spezia have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • Spezia have failed to keep a clean sheet in all their away matches.
  • Spezia have failed to score a single goal away.
  • Spezia have lost all their away matches so far.
  • Spezia have the fewest points (0) away in Serie A
  • Spezia have the fewest scored goals (0) away in Serie A
  • Spezia have the fewest scored goals in the second half (2) in Serie A
  • Spezia have the the worst goal difference (-12) away in Serie A
  • Spezia haven’t played a single 0-0 game.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Napoli 10 8 2 0 25 9 5 4 1 0 12 4 5 4 1 0 13 5 16 26
2 Atalanta 10 7 3 0 16 6 5 3 2 0 8 4 5 4 1 0 8 2 10 24
3 Milan 10 7 2 1 20 10 5 4 0 1 12 6 5 3 2 0 8 4 10 23
4 Roma 10 7 1 2 13 9 4 3 0 1 6 2 6 4 1 1 7 7 4 22
5 Lazio 10 6 3 1 21 5 6 4 1 1 12 4 4 2 2 0 9 1 16 21
6 Udinese 10 6 3 1 19 10 5 3 2 0 10 3 5 3 1 1 9 7 9 21
7 Inter 10 6 0 4 18 14 5 4 0 1 10 3 5 2 0 3 8 11 4 18
8 Juventus 10 4 4 2 13 7 5 3 2 0 11 3 5 1 2 2 2 4 6 16
9 Sassuolo 10 3 3 4 12 12 5 2 1 2 8 5 5 1 2 2 4 7 0 12
10 Empoli 10 2 5 3 9 11 5 1 2 2 4 6 5 1 3 1 5 5 -2 11
11 Torino 10 3 2 5 8 12 5 1 2 2 2 3 5 2 0 3 6 9 -4 11
12 Salernitana 10 2 4 4 12 16 5 2 1 2 9 6 5 0 3 2 3 10 -4 10
13 Fiorentina 10 2 4 4 8 12 5 2 2 1 6 7 5 0 2 3 2 5 -4 10
14 Monza 10 3 1 6 9 15 5 2 0 3 5 6 5 1 1 3 4 9 -6 10
15 Spezia 10 2 3 5 9 19 5 2 3 0 9 7 5 0 0 5 0 12 -10 9
16 Lecce 10 1 5 4 9 12 5 0 4 1 5 6 5 1 1 3 4 6 -3 8
17 Bologna 10 1 4 5 10 17 5 1 3 1 5 5 5 0 1 4 5 12 -7 7
18 Hellas Verona 10 1 2 7 9 19 5 1 0 4 6 11 5 0 2 3 3 8 -10 5
19 Cremonese 10 0 4 6 9 21 4 0 1 3 2 10 6 0 3 3 7 11 -12 4
20 Sampdoria 10 0 3 7 5 18 6 0 2 4 2 9 4 0 1 3 3 9 -13 3

Read more about Serie A

Serie A is the division at the top of the Italian football league system and regarded as one of the top leagues of the world. 20 teams play each other home and away to create a final league table after 380 fixtures. The winners are titled “Campione d’Italia” (Champion of Italy), often referred to as the scudetto.