Serie A match prediction: Little separates Roma and Milan in quality

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Competition: Italy Serie A
Competition: Sun 28.February
Match begins: 19:45 (UTC)
Venue: Stadio Olimpico (72698 seats)

The Roma & Milan managers P. Rodrigues Fonseca and S. Pioli are both dreading and looking forward to this decisive game in the upper regions of the Serie A league table.

Insights:
  • Roma have the most scored goals in the first half (29) in Serie A
  • Milan have the fewest dropped points from leading position (2) in Serie A

It’s busy days for these teams as both were in action only a few days ago. There’s no rest for the wicked, or in this case; no rest for Roma and Milan.

W D W W L

Roma form and stats

9-3-0 is the performance here at Stadio Olimpico so far in the Serie A, giving Roma a total of 30 from their 12 games here. Outstanding results! In general it's been a long time since Roma tasted defeat here at Stadio Olimpico, as they have taken at least one point from their last twelve home games in the league.

The Roma goalkeeper Pau Lopez Sabata is looking to record 90 more "clean sheet" minutes as his team have now played 201 minutes without conceding a goal in the Serie A.

Roma's previous game was a Europa League match also played at home, ending 3-1 versus Sporting Braga. The home side are looking to build on that result. A 0-0 draw away in the Serie A before that, with Benevento the opponent.

This is expected to be a close game, with Roma perhaps considered small favourites due to their home advantage. Looking back at earlier matches similar to this one (expected to be close with Roma as a small favourite), we find two games. Roma has won one of these, drawn zero and lost one.

The manager P. Rodrigues Fonseca will start preparations for the next game as soon this is finished, as the hosts are going to Fiorentina in only three days.

Goals are plentiful at Stadio Olimpico in the league this season as Roma has scored 31 goals here in 12 home games. Roma have conceded 13 in these home matches.

D L D L W

Milan form and stats

Milan, who have the most points (28) away in Serie A, have been very strong on the road so far with a massive 28 points collected from 11 Serie A games. 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat is the record so far.

Milan aren't clicking offensively as they have gone 200 league minutes without a goal. A. Rebic was the last player to find the net.

Milan played 1-1 against Crvena Zvezda in their previous match. Preceding that, the 0-3 home loss versus Inter.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Milan playing away and similar expectations, we found one relevant match. Results were zero Milan wins, zero draws and one defeat.

After this away game Milan return home for a Serie A game against Udinese. That game is only three sleeps after this.

Milan are not goal shy away from home in the league, finding the net 21 times in 11 away games so far. It's not easy to score on Milan as they have only conceded 10 goals from these away games.

Head 2 Head

The last H2H meeting was Milan - Roma 3-3, played this season. Head-2-head stats last ten meetings: five - two - three (Roma wins - draws - Milan wins). As for goals, five matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), five had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

MilanZ. Ibrahimović
Z. Ibrahimović
14 goals
RomaH. Mkhitaryan
H. Mkhitaryan
9 goals
RomaJ. Veretout
J. Veretout
9 goals

Roma missing players

Milan missing players

Roma Milan
Total Home vs top Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
22 12 2 Played P 1 11 23
13 9 0 Won W 1 9 15
5 3 2 Drew D 0 1 4
4 0 0 Lost L 0 1 4
47 31 4 Scored S 2 21 45
32 13 4 Conceded C 1 10 28
91% 92% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 100%
82% 83% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 100% 100%
73% 75% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 64% 70%
59% 58% 100% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 18% 35%
27% 25% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 9%
55% 58% 100% BTTS BTTS 100% 64% 52%
32% 42% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 27% 35%
23% 8% 0% Failed to Score F T 0% 9% 13%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
2.4 2.8 2.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 3 2.5 2.4
1 1 0 Red cards R C 0 2 2
 
14.4 16.3 13 Shots (avg) S ( 12 12.6 15.3
5.5 6.4 6.5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4 4.7 5.4
39% 40% 31% Goal Efficiency G E 50% 40% 36%
Key stats in Serie A this season:
  • All of Milan's matches have had more than 1,5 goals.
  • Milan have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded away.
  • Milan have the fewest dropped points from leading position (2) in Serie A
  • Milan have the most points (28) away in Serie A
  • Milan haven’t played a single 0-0 game.
  • Roma have not yet lost a game at home.
  • Roma have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Roma have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded at home.
  • Roma have the most points (30) at home in Serie A
  • Roma have the most scored goals in the first half (29) in Serie A

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Inter 23 16 5 2 57 24 11 9 1 1 32 14 12 7 4 1 25 10 33 53
2 Milan 23 15 4 4 45 28 12 6 3 3 24 18 11 9 1 1 21 10 17 49
3 Juventus 22 13 6 3 44 19 11 8 2 1 23 8 11 5 4 2 21 11 25 45
4 Roma 23 13 5 5 47 35 12 9 3 0 31 13 11 4 2 5 16 22 12 44
5 Atalanta 23 12 7 4 53 31 12 6 3 3 30 18 11 6 4 1 23 13 22 43
6 Lazio 23 13 4 6 38 30 12 7 2 3 18 14 11 6 2 3 20 16 8 43
7 Napoli 22 13 1 8 47 25 11 7 1 3 28 10 11 6 0 5 19 15 22 40
8 Sassuolo 23 9 8 6 37 34 11 3 5 3 15 15 12 6 3 3 22 19 3 35
9 Hellas Verona 23 9 7 7 30 26 11 6 2 3 17 11 12 3 5 4 13 15 4 34
10 Sampdoria 23 9 3 11 33 34 11 5 1 5 19 17 12 4 2 6 14 17 -1 30
11 Genoa 23 6 8 9 26 33 12 4 3 5 18 19 11 2 5 4 8 14 -7 26
12 Bologna 23 6 7 10 30 37 11 4 3 4 19 20 12 2 4 6 11 17 -7 25
13 Udinese 23 6 7 10 25 33 11 3 3 5 9 12 12 3 4 5 16 21 -8 25
14 Fiorentina 23 6 7 10 25 35 12 5 4 3 14 11 11 1 3 7 11 24 -10 25
15 Benevento 23 6 7 10 25 42 12 2 5 5 12 21 11 4 2 5 13 21 -17 25
16 Spezia 23 6 6 11 30 41 11 2 3 6 12 19 12 4 3 5 18 22 -11 24
17 Torino 23 3 11 9 33 41 11 0 7 4 14 19 12 3 4 5 19 22 -8 20
18 Cagliari 23 3 6 14 24 41 12 2 3 7 13 21 11 1 3 7 11 20 -17 15
19 Parma 23 2 8 13 17 45 12 1 5 6 5 20 11 1 3 7 12 25 -28 14
20 Crotone 23 3 3 17 23 55 11 3 1 7 14 22 12 0 2 10 9 33 -32 12

Roma:
Milan:

Read more about Serie A

Serie A is the division at the top of the Italian football league system and regarded as one of the top leagues of the world. 20 teams play each other home and away to create a final league table after 380 fixtures. The winners are titled “Campione d’Italia” (Champion of Italy), often referred to as the scudetto.