Championship match prediction: Little separates Luton Town and Stoke City in quality

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Competition: England Championship
Competition: Sat 04.February
Match begins: 15:00 (UTC)
Venue: Kenilworth Road Stadium (10226 seats)

Championship: High-level versus below par, at least that's what the table says. Luton Town - Stoke City. Home win or a surprise result?

Insights:
  • Luton Town have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Stoke City have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

The hosts Luton saw competitive action as recent as four days ago, playing in the Championship. Thankfully the previous game, versus Cardiff City, was also a home game here at Kenilworth Road Stadium. The away team is better rested.

W D W W L

Luton Town form and stats

The story so far in the Championship for Luton Town at their home stadium (Kenilworth Road Stadium) is 4 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Defensively the home team are doing well, with their goalkeeper Ethan Horvath not having conceded a league goal in 203 minutes.

Luton Town's last game was hosting Cardiff City (placed 21st) and winning 1-0. The home side have an in-form goalscorer in Adebayo, having bagged a goal in five games in a row. Goalkeeper Horvath got the top rating on the team in that game; 7.83 out of ten. Horvath topped it up with a clean sheet.

A 2-2 scoreline against Grimsby Town before that one, played at their own home stadium in the FA Cup. This is expected to be a close game, with Luton perhaps considered small favourites due to their home advantage. Looking back at earlier matches similar to this one (expected to be close with Luton Town as a small favourite), we find 11 games. Luton Town has won 4 of these, drawn 4 and lost 3.

The manager Edwards will start preparations for the next game as soon this is finished, as the hosts are going to Grimsby Town in only three days.

The Luton Town fans would probably like to see some more goals scored at their own stadium in the league, the tally being 19 in 14 matches. On the other hand, Luton have conceded 16 goals.

W W L W L

Stoke City form and stats

As the visiting team in Championship matches, Stoke City have produced an overall stat of 5-3-6 so far.

The club members enjoyed Stoke City's previous fixture versus Stevenage, a FA Cup win (3-1) played at home. Brown, attacking player, was the top performer on the team in that game, scoring a match rating of 7.83. Brown scored one goal and hit one key pass.

A home win before that, celebrating 4-0 vs Reading.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Stoke City playing away and similar expectations, we found 11 relevant matches. Results were 5 Stoke City wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats.

Stoke have scored 16 goals on their travels this season, from 14 away games in the league. Stoke City have conceded 19 goals in these away matches.

Head 2 Head

Stoke City - Luton Town 2-0 was the outcome when this pair of participants last did battle, earlier this season. As for the last ten games between these two teams, there's one Luton victory, four draws and five Stoke City wins. Over/under statistics; four of these games ended with three goals or more, six matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

Luton TownC. Morris
C. Morris
11 goals
Luton TownE. Adebayo
E. Adebayo
6 goals
Stoke CityT. Campbell
T. Campbell
5 goals

Luton Town missing players

Stoke City missing players

Total First Half Second Half
Luton Town Stoke City
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
28 14 5 Played P 5 14 28
12 4 1 Won W 1 5 9
9 7 3 Drew D 1 3 6
7 3 1 Lost L 3 6 13
36 19 6 Scored S 4 16 33
29 16 6 Conceded C 9 19 37
89% 86% 80% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 93% 96%
75% 71% 60% Over 1.5 O 1.5 80% 79% 75%
39% 43% 40% Over 2.5 O 2.5 40% 50% 46%
18% 29% 20% Over 3.5 O 3.5 40% 29% 32%
7% 14% 20% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 0%
46% 64% 60% BTTS BTTS 60% 50% 43%
39% 29% 40% Clean Sheets C S 20% 36% 29%
25% 21% 20% Failed to Score F T 20% 21% 32%
 
5.8 7.6 10.4 Corners for (avg) C F 3.8 4.6 5.4
5.4 5.1 4.2 Corners against (avg) C A 8.2 5.9 5.4
2 1.5 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2.2 1.9 1.9
3 1 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
12 14.6 17 Shots (avg) S ( 9 11.8 12.7
4 4.6 6.2 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4 4.1 4.4
32% 29% 19% Goal Efficiency G E 20% 28% 27%
 
12 11.9 9.4 Shots against (avg) S A 12.6 12.1 10.6
3.1 3.6 3 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 4.6 3.7 3.4
Key stats in Championship this season:
  • Luton Town have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Luton Town have won significantly more corners at home than away.
  • Stoke City have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Burnley 28 18 8 2 55 26 15 11 4 0 32 12 13 7 4 2 23 14 29 62
2 Sheffield United 28 17 6 5 48 24 14 9 3 2 30 13 14 8 3 3 18 11 24 57
3 Middlesbrough 29 13 6 10 44 35 14 7 5 2 20 12 15 6 1 8 24 23 9 45
4 Luton Town 28 12 9 7 36 29 14 4 7 3 19 16 14 8 2 4 17 13 7 45
5 Watford 29 12 8 9 34 31 14 7 3 4 20 13 15 5 5 5 14 18 3 44
6 Blackburn Rovers 28 14 1 13 31 35 13 9 0 4 20 13 15 5 1 9 11 22 -4 43
7 Norwich City 28 12 6 10 40 31 14 5 4 5 19 16 14 7 2 5 21 15 9 42
8 Millwall 27 12 6 9 33 27 13 8 3 2 20 8 14 4 3 7 13 19 6 42
9 Sunderland 28 11 8 9 41 32 14 5 4 5 19 16 14 6 4 4 22 16 9 41
10 West Bromwich Albion 28 11 8 9 38 30 14 6 4 4 20 14 14 5 4 5 18 16 8 41
11 Preston North End 28 11 7 10 26 31 14 3 4 7 8 18 14 8 3 3 18 13 -5 40
12 Swansea City 28 10 9 9 40 38 13 6 2 5 20 16 15 4 7 4 20 22 2 39
13 Coventry City 28 10 8 10 31 31 15 7 4 4 19 14 13 3 4 6 12 17 0 38
14 Queens Park Rangers 29 10 8 11 31 37 14 5 4 5 17 18 15 5 4 6 14 19 -6 38
15 Hull City 29 10 7 12 36 44 15 5 3 7 17 23 14 5 4 5 19 21 -8 37
16 Reading 28 11 4 13 31 42 13 8 2 3 20 14 15 3 2 10 11 28 -11 37
17 Bristol City 28 8 9 11 37 38 15 5 4 6 19 17 13 3 5 5 18 21 -1 33
18 Stoke City 28 9 6 13 33 37 14 4 3 7 17 18 14 5 3 6 16 19 -4 33
19 Birmingham City 28 8 8 12 30 35 15 4 5 6 18 18 13 4 3 6 12 17 -5 32
20 Rotherham United 28 7 10 11 33 40 13 5 4 4 24 17 15 2 6 7 9 23 -7 31
21 Cardiff City 29 7 8 14 21 32 15 4 5 6 11 13 14 3 3 8 10 19 -11 29
22 Huddersfield Town 27 7 5 15 25 35 14 5 2 7 13 14 13 2 3 8 12 21 -10 26
23 Blackpool 27 6 8 13 28 40 13 3 3 7 14 19 14 3 5 6 14 21 -12 26
24 Wigan Athletic 28 6 7 15 27 49 15 2 3 10 11 30 13 4 4 5 16 19 -22 25

Luton Town:
Stoke City:
Championship:
England:
Table
  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Burnley 28 18 8 2 55 26 15 11 4 0 32 12 13 7 4 2 23 14 29 62
2 Sheffield United 28 17 6 5 48 24 14 9 3 2 30 13 14 8 3 3 18 11 24 57
3 Middlesbrough 29 13 6 10 44 35 14 7 5 2 20 12 15 6 1 8 24 23 9 45
4 Luton Town 28 12 9 7 36 29 14 4 7 3 19 16 14 8 2 4 17 13 7 45
5 Watford 29 12 8 9 34 31 14 7 3 4 20 13 15 5 5 5 14 18 3 44
6 Blackburn Rovers 28 14 1 13 31 35 13 9 0 4 20 13 15 5 1 9 11 22 -4 43
7 Norwich City 28 12 6 10 40 31 14 5 4 5 19 16 14 7 2 5 21 15 9 42
8 Millwall 27 12 6 9 33 27 13 8 3 2 20 8 14 4 3 7 13 19 6 42
9 Sunderland 28 11 8 9 41 32 14 5 4 5 19 16 14 6 4 4 22 16 9 41
10 West Bromwich Albion 28 11 8 9 38 30 14 6 4 4 20 14 14 5 4 5 18 16 8 41
11 Preston North End 28 11 7 10 26 31 14 3 4 7 8 18 14 8 3 3 18 13 -5 40
12 Swansea City 28 10 9 9 40 38 13 6 2 5 20 16 15 4 7 4 20 22 2 39
13 Coventry City 28 10 8 10 31 31 15 7 4 4 19 14 13 3 4 6 12 17 0 38
14 Queens Park Rangers 29 10 8 11 31 37 14 5 4 5 17 18 15 5 4 6 14 19 -6 38
15 Hull City 29 10 7 12 36 44 15 5 3 7 17 23 14 5 4 5 19 21 -8 37
16 Reading 28 11 4 13 31 42 13 8 2 3 20 14 15 3 2 10 11 28 -11 37
17 Bristol City 28 8 9 11 37 38 15 5 4 6 19 17 13 3 5 5 18 21 -1 33
18 Stoke City 28 9 6 13 33 37 14 4 3 7 17 18 14 5 3 6 16 19 -4 33
19 Birmingham City 28 8 8 12 30 35 15 4 5 6 18 18 13 4 3 6 12 17 -5 32
20 Rotherham United 28 7 10 11 33 40 13 5 4 4 24 17 15 2 6 7 9 23 -7 31
21 Cardiff City 29 7 8 14 21 32 15 4 5 6 11 13 14 3 3 8 10 19 -11 29
22 Huddersfield Town 27 7 5 15 25 35 14 5 2 7 13 14 13 2 3 8 12 21 -10 26
23 Blackpool 27 6 8 13 28 40 13 3 3 7 14 19 14 3 5 6 14 21 -12 26
24 Wigan Athletic 28 6 7 15 27 49 15 2 3 10 11 30 13 4 4 5 16 19 -22 25

More from England - Championship

Read more about Championship

The English Football League Championship (usually shortened to the Championship) is the second highest division in the English football league system. 24 teams play 46 fixtures from August to May, meeting each other twice. The Championship is the wealthiest second-level division in the world.