Football betting preview: Fluminense favourites when América Mineiro arrive

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Competition: Brazil Serie A
Competition: Sun 09.October
Match begins: 21:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (78838 seats)

The league table tells us that 9 points divide the pair of competitors in this Serie A game. Fluminense carry both the points- and home advantage.

Insights:
  • Fluminense have the most matches over the total-line (14) in Serie A
  • Fluminense have scored at least twice as many goals at home as América Mineiro have scored away.

There’s little time for restitution or working hard at the training pitch these days, with both teams having played their last game less than four days ago.

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Fluminense form and stats

The home supporters can't complain about results here at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho as Fluminense have scored 31 goals to get 32 points from 15 games. The overall stats in the Serie A are 10-2-3 (wins-draws-losses).

Fluminense lost their last game at Atletico GO (placed 18th) after a 2-3 scoreline. A disaster for the home team in their last match (vs Atletico GO) as a comfortable lead 2-0 was completely ruined into a loss 2-3. Fábio had a busy but productive day in the Atletico GO match. Despite making seven saves the loss could not be prevented. Midfield player Arias got a match rating of 7.85 in that game, the max score being 10. Arias scored one goal, hit two key passes, dribled past the opponent 1 of 2 times and had 30 successful passes (of 33 total).

Heartbreak before that as Fluminense lost 0-2 at Atletico Mineiro's place.

The betting market estimate that the home team has about 55-60% chance of winning this match. There could be betting value if you think differently, so to help you here are the stats from Fluminense's earlier matches at home being 55%-60% favourite: Played 11 games, won 8 matches, drawn 2 and lost 1.

Scoring bonanza? Nobody knows about this one, but we do know that 12 of the 16 latest league games with this team has contained three or more goals.

With an average of more than two goals per home game in the league (31 in 15 games), Fluminense's attacking play is working.

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América Mineiro form and stats

América Mineiro have only collected 15 points from their away games in the Serie A, after 4-3-8 (15 played).

América Mineiro failed to get anything from their last game, a home match vs São Paulo (placed 10th) that ended with defeat 1-2. América Mineiro were so close to getting something from the game against São Paulo, but ended up with egg all over their face after conceding the deciding goal one minutes into overtime. Everaldo, attacking player, was the top performer on the team in that game, scoring a match rating of 7.35. Everaldo hit one key pass.

Before that one, a nice away victory 2-1 at Ceara.

Looking at the earlier recent performances of América Mineiro when being an outsider away as they are today, we find 4 matches with the visitors losing 3 times, drawing 1 and winning 0 games.

The attacking power of América when travelling is not overwhelming with 9 goals scored from 15 league matches away. América Mineiro have conceded 17 goals in these away matches.

Head 2 Head

América Mineiro - Fluminense 0-0 was the scoreline in these participants' last head to head match, played this season. Last nine meetings involving these contenders: Fluminense won four, América Mineiro triumphed in three and we saw two draws. two games with over 2,5 goals, seven matches with less than 2,5 goals.

Top Goalscorers

FluminenseG. Cano
G. Cano
17 goals
FluminenseJ. Arias Andrade
J. Arias Andrade
7 goals
FluminenseM. Silva Carvalho
M. Silva Carvalho
4 goals

Fluminense missing players

América Mineiro missing players

Fluminense América Mineiro
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
30 15 3 Played P 4 15 30
15 10 3 Won W 0 4 12
6 2 0 Drew D 2 3 6
9 3 0 Lost L 2 8 12
48 31 9 Scored S 2 9 27
36 15 5 Conceded C 6 17 30
93% 93% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 93% 93%
70% 80% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 75% 47% 53%
53% 60% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 25% 33% 33%
30% 27% 33% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 0% 7%
17% 13% 33% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 3%
50% 53% 100% BTTS BTTS 50% 33% 37%
30% 33% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 20% 30%
27% 20% 0% Failed to Score F T 50% 53% 40%
 
5.6 7 5 Corners for (avg) C F 5.2 4.9 5.3
5.4 4.8 6.7 Corners against (avg) C A 7 6.3 5.8
2.1 2.1 3 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.2 2.5 2.4
9 3 1 Red cards R C 0 4 5
 
14 16.8 17.3 Shots (avg) S ( 12.2 12 14.3
4.7 5.6 7 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4.8 4.3 4.9
34% 37% 43% Goal Efficiency G E 11% 14% 18%
 
12.3 9.8 11 Shots against (avg) S A 17 16.9 15
4.1 3.5 4 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 6 5.5 4.5
Key stats in Serie A this season:
  • Fluminense have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Fluminense have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded at home.
  • Fluminense have scored at least twice as many goals at home as América Mineiro have scored away.
  • Fluminense have the fewest matches under the total-line (10) in Serie A
  • Fluminense have the most matches over the total-line (14) in Serie A
  • Fluminense have won significantly more corners at home than away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Palmeiras 30 19 9 2 52 20 15 10 3 2 30 11 15 9 6 0 22 9 32 66
2 Internacional 30 14 12 4 44 26 15 9 5 1 29 11 15 5 7 3 15 15 18 54
3 Fluminense 30 15 6 9 48 36 15 10 2 3 31 15 15 5 4 6 17 21 12 51
4 Corinthians 30 14 9 7 36 29 15 10 4 1 21 7 15 4 5 6 15 22 7 51
5 Flamengo 30 14 7 9 48 28 15 9 3 3 31 9 15 5 4 6 17 19 20 49
6 Atletico PR 30 13 9 8 36 34 15 8 6 1 23 12 15 5 3 7 13 22 2 48
7 Atletico Mineiro 30 12 10 8 38 32 15 6 4 5 21 16 15 6 6 3 17 16 6 46
8 América Mineiro 30 12 6 12 27 30 15 8 3 4 18 13 15 4 3 8 9 17 -3 42
9 Botafogo 30 11 7 12 31 34 15 4 4 7 13 15 15 7 3 5 18 19 -3 40
10 São Paulo 29 9 13 7 41 32 14 6 5 3 25 15 15 3 8 4 16 17 9 40
11 Fortaleza 30 10 8 12 30 32 14 4 6 4 12 11 16 6 2 8 18 21 -2 38
12 Bragantino 30 9 11 10 40 39 15 7 5 3 24 14 15 2 6 7 16 25 1 38
13 Goias 30 9 11 10 31 36 15 5 6 4 17 16 15 4 5 6 14 20 -5 38
14 Santos 30 9 10 11 32 28 15 7 4 4 23 14 15 2 6 7 9 14 4 37
15 Ceara 30 6 14 10 28 32 16 3 7 6 15 19 14 3 7 4 13 13 -4 32
16 Coritiba 29 9 4 16 29 47 15 9 2 4 19 12 14 0 2 12 10 35 -18 31
17 Cuiaba 30 7 9 14 22 32 14 4 7 3 11 9 16 3 2 11 11 23 -10 30
18 Atletico GO 30 7 7 16 30 47 15 5 3 7 17 18 15 2 4 9 13 29 -17 28
19 Avaí 30 7 7 16 28 47 16 6 4 6 21 21 14 1 3 10 7 26 -19 28
20 Juventude 30 3 11 16 23 53 15 2 7 6 14 21 15 1 4 10 9 32 -30 20

Read more about Serie A

The Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, often called the Brasileirão (or just Série A), is the primary football competition in Brazil. It has 20 teams playing each other twice from May to December, a total of 38 fixtures. The top team is crowned as the champion and the bottom four are relegated.