Serie A match prediction: Little separates América Mineiro and Grêmio in quality

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Competition: Brazil Serie A
Competition: Sat 13.November
Match begins: 21:30 (UTC)
Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (23018 seats)

América Mineiro have won 23 of their 41 in total here at their familiar ground. Will they win more points versus Grêmio?

Insights:
  • América Mineiro have the fewest matches over the total-line (8) in Serie A
  • Grêmio have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored away.

There’s little time for restitution or working hard at the training pitch these days, with both teams having played their last game less than four days ago.

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América Mineiro form and stats

When playing at home in the Serie A, América Mineiro have managed 6 wins, 5 draws and suffered 4 defeats from 15 games.

Happy days for América Mineiro in their previous game, a Serie A match away at Sport Recife (placed 18th) that ended with a 3-2 victory. Manager M. dos Santos Gonçalves felt very clever after Juninho Valoura scored the winning goal against Sport Recife, having brought on that player as a substitute in the 59th minute. Marlon Lopes was "man of the match" with a rating of 7.32 out of 10. The defender Lopes hit one key pass and won 10 of 12 duels.

A defeat was the result before that one, 0-1 away at Atletico Mineiro.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how América have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found four matches with the results: Won four, drawn zero and lost zero.

The match schedule is unforgiving for América Mineiro as they have a new game in only four days, a Serie A match thankfully also at home. Atlético GO are visiting.

América Mineiro aren't scoring a lot here at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in the league, with only 14 goals from 15 games. América have only conceded 10 from their league home games. For more goal stats, check the Statistics tab above.

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Grêmio form and stats

Grêmio have only collected 9 points from their away games in the Serie A, after 3-0-12 (15 played). A depressing six defeats in a row for Grêmio in their away games. Unhappy days, as the last time they avoided a loss on the road was versus Flamengo.

Impressive finishing from Diego Souza secured the home win 1-0 against Fluminense in their previous game. Goalkeeper Brenno got the top player rating of the team with 8.22/10. Brenno stopped the opponent with five saves and topped it up with a clean sheet.

Prior to that match, the Grêmio manager V. Carmo Mancini faced defeat when travelling to Internacional and losing 0-1.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Grêmio playing away and similar expectations, we found seven relevant matches. Results were four Grêmio wins, zero draws and three defeats.

A quick return to home after this game, as Grêmio are hosting Bragantino in the Serie A only three days away.

Many goals are not expected from the visiting Grêmio as they have only managed to score 9 times from 15 away games in the league. It's been trouble in front of goal recently, as only 1 of these goals has been scored in their last three away matches. 22 goals have been conceded by Grêmio in these games.

Head 2 Head

América Mineiro and Grêmio have faced off previously this season: Grêmio - América 1-1. América Mineiro-Grêmio H2H statistics last eight meetings regardless of arena: América Mineiro zero wins, Grêmio three wins, five draws. two of these eight matches had three or more goals (over 2,5).

Top Goalscorers

AméricaA. da Silva Santos Junior
A. da Silva Santos Junior
8 goals
GrêmioD. de Souza Andrade
D. de Souza Andrade
6 goals
América MineiroF. Azevedo dos Santos
F. Azevedo dos Santos
4 goals

América Mineiro missing players

Grêmio missing players

Total First Half Second Half
América Mineiro Grêmio
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
31 15 3 Played P 6 15 30
10 6 0 Won W 2 3 8
11 5 2 Drew D 0 0 5
10 4 1 Lost L 4 12 17
32 14 1 Scored S 6 9 26
33 10 2 Conceded C 9 22 38
90% 87% 67% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 93%
71% 60% 33% Over 1.5 O 1.5 33% 47% 53%
23% 13% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 33% 27% 33%
13% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 33% 13% 20%
6% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 33% 13% 10%
45% 33% 33% BTTS BTTS 33% 27% 37%
29% 40% 33% Clean Sheets C S 33% 20% 27%
35% 40% 67% Failed to Score F T 33% 53% 43%
 
5.4 6.7 8.3 Corners for (avg) C F 5.3 5.6 6.3
5.1 5.2 4.7 Corners against (avg) C A 4.3 4.1 3.7
1.6 1.6 1.7 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 4.3 3.6 2.9
1 1 1 Red cards R C 1 2 4
 
15.1 16.1 14.3 Shots (avg) S ( 9.8 11.1 13.9
4.5 4.6 3.7 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3.3 3.7 4
23% 20% 9% Goal Efficiency G E 30% 16% 21%
 
11.9 10.7 11.7 Shots against (avg) S A 11.3 12.5 11.1
4.5 4.1 4 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 3.3 4.1 4
Key stats in Serie A this season:
  • América Mineiro have the fewest matches over the total-line (8) in Serie A
  • América Mineiro have won significantly more corners at home than away.
  • Grêmio have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored away.
  • Grêmio haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Atletico Mineiro 31 21 5 5 50 22 16 14 1 1 34 9 15 7 4 4 16 13 28 68
2 Palmeiras 31 18 4 9 51 35 16 10 2 4 30 22 15 8 2 5 21 13 16 58
3 Flamengo 29 16 6 7 54 28 15 10 1 4 25 13 14 6 5 3 29 15 26 54
4 Fortaleza 31 14 7 10 40 34 15 8 4 3 22 14 16 6 3 7 18 20 6 49
5 Bragantino 32 12 13 7 47 37 16 5 8 3 23 19 16 7 5 4 24 18 10 49
6 Corinthians 31 12 11 8 32 29 15 7 4 4 19 15 16 5 7 4 13 14 3 47
7 Internacional 31 11 11 9 39 33 15 7 5 3 24 16 16 4 6 6 15 17 6 44
8 Fluminense 31 11 9 11 29 32 15 7 5 3 16 13 16 4 4 8 13 19 -3 42
9 Athletico PR 31 12 5 14 38 40 16 7 4 5 22 20 15 5 1 9 16 20 -2 41
10 América Mineiro 31 10 11 10 32 33 15 6 5 4 14 10 16 4 6 6 18 23 -1 41
11 Cuiabá 31 8 15 8 28 29 16 5 6 5 15 17 15 3 9 3 13 12 -1 39
12 Ceara 31 8 15 8 29 32 16 8 6 2 20 12 15 0 9 6 9 20 -3 39
13 Santos 31 9 11 11 28 36 16 7 5 4 16 13 15 2 6 7 12 23 -8 38
14 Sao Paulo 31 8 14 9 24 29 15 5 8 2 13 10 16 3 6 7 11 19 -5 38
15 Atlético GO 30 9 10 11 24 32 14 4 7 3 11 11 16 5 3 8 13 21 -8 37
16 Bahia 30 9 9 12 33 39 15 6 4 5 20 18 15 3 5 7 13 21 -6 36
17 Juventude 30 7 12 11 29 37 16 6 6 4 16 15 14 1 6 7 13 22 -8 33
18 Sport Recife 32 7 9 16 19 31 16 4 5 7 10 11 16 3 4 9 9 20 -12 30
19 Grêmio 30 8 5 17 26 38 15 5 5 5 17 16 15 3 0 12 9 22 -12 29
20 Chapecoense 31 1 12 18 26 52 15 0 6 9 12 25 16 1 6 9 14 27 -26 15

Table
  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Atletico Mineiro 31 21 5 5 50 22 16 14 1 1 34 9 15 7 4 4 16 13 28 68
2 Palmeiras 31 18 4 9 51 35 16 10 2 4 30 22 15 8 2 5 21 13 16 58
3 Flamengo 29 16 6 7 54 28 15 10 1 4 25 13 14 6 5 3 29 15 26 54
4 Fortaleza 31 14 7 10 40 34 15 8 4 3 22 14 16 6 3 7 18 20 6 49
5 Bragantino 32 12 13 7 47 37 16 5 8 3 23 19 16 7 5 4 24 18 10 49
6 Corinthians 31 12 11 8 32 29 15 7 4 4 19 15 16 5 7 4 13 14 3 47
7 Internacional 31 11 11 9 39 33 15 7 5 3 24 16 16 4 6 6 15 17 6 44
8 Fluminense 31 11 9 11 29 32 15 7 5 3 16 13 16 4 4 8 13 19 -3 42
9 Athletico PR 31 12 5 14 38 40 16 7 4 5 22 20 15 5 1 9 16 20 -2 41
10 América Mineiro 31 10 11 10 32 33 15 6 5 4 14 10 16 4 6 6 18 23 -1 41
11 Cuiabá 31 8 15 8 28 29 16 5 6 5 15 17 15 3 9 3 13 12 -1 39
12 Ceara 31 8 15 8 29 32 16 8 6 2 20 12 15 0 9 6 9 20 -3 39
13 Santos 31 9 11 11 28 36 16 7 5 4 16 13 15 2 6 7 12 23 -8 38
14 Sao Paulo 31 8 14 9 24 29 15 5 8 2 13 10 16 3 6 7 11 19 -5 38
15 Atlético GO 30 9 10 11 24 32 14 4 7 3 11 11 16 5 3 8 13 21 -8 37
16 Bahia 30 9 9 12 33 39 15 6 4 5 20 18 15 3 5 7 13 21 -6 36
17 Juventude 30 7 12 11 29 37 16 6 6 4 16 15 14 1 6 7 13 22 -8 33
18 Sport Recife 32 7 9 16 19 31 16 4 5 7 10 11 16 3 4 9 9 20 -12 30
19 Grêmio 30 8 5 17 26 38 15 5 5 5 17 16 15 3 0 12 9 22 -12 29
20 Chapecoense 31 1 12 18 26 52 15 0 6 9 12 25 16 1 6 9 14 27 -26 15

More from Brazil - Serie A

Read more about Serie A

The Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, often called the Brasileirão (or just Série A), is the primary football competition in Brazil. It has 20 teams playing each other twice from May to December, a total of 38 fixtures. The top team is crowned as the champion and the bottom four are relegated.