Premier Division prediction: Derry City should edge out UCD on their own turf

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Competition: Republic of Ireland Premier Division
Competition: Fri 22.April
Match begins: 18:45 (UTC)
Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (7700 seats)

Derry City are chasing the top league places while UCD are more nervous about steering clear of relegation. Who will get the points?

Insights:
  • Derry City have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • UCD have the fewest scored goals (6) in Premier Division

There’s little time for restitution or working hard at the training pitch these days, with both teams having played their last game less than four days ago.

D L W W W

Derry City form and stats

Derry City have collected 10 points from their Premier Division home games so far after 3-1-1.

Derry City travelled for their previous game, a trip to Drogheda United that ended 1-1.

Before that game, the home loss against Shelbourne with the scoreline 1-2.

Derry are certainly not overdoing their scoring at home in league matches, having created 7 goals in 5 games. Derry City are not conceding a lot of goals here at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in the league, averaging less than one per game. The total is 4 from 5 matches.

L L D L L

UCD form and stats

The visitors, who have the fewest scored goals (6) in Premier Division, are W0-D1-L4 on the road this term. That's in the Premier Division. UCD are desperate to end a eleven-game winless run, as they haven't won a game since the Bray Wanderers fixture.

This match can not go any worse than the last one, the home loss versus St Patrick's with 1-2 on the scoreboard.

A loss against Drogheda United was the result prior to that, in a home game.

With the home team stated as having a victory chance of approximately 80% by the bookmakers, any positive result for the away side would be a surprise. Inspecting previous matches with similar odds and UCD as the visiting side, we found four results. Statistics from these were zero away wins, one draw and three defeats. The away team lost three of these games by at least two goals.

The visitors have scored 4 goals from 5 away games in the league, an average of less than one per game. UCD are struggling defensively in their away games, having conceded 4 goals in these matches.

Head 2 Head

Here's what happened when the participants played each other previously this season; UCD - Derry City 0-2. Previous ten meetings between these participants: Derry City won six, UCD were winners in two and we saw two draws. five games with more than 2,5 goals, five matches with less than 2,5 goals.

Top Goalscorers

Derry CityW. Patching
W. Patching
5 goals
DerryJ. McGonigle
J. McGonigle
4 goals
Derry CityR. Boyce
R. Boyce
2 goals

Derry City missing players

UCD missing players

Derry City UCD
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
11 5 2 Played P 2 5 11
7 3 1 Won W 0 0 0
3 1 0 Drew D 0 1 4
1 1 1 Lost L 2 4 7
17 7 3 Scored S 0 4 6
9 4 2 Conceded C 5 13 20
91% 80% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 82%
82% 80% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 100% 82%
55% 60% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 50% 60% 36%
9% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 40% 18%
0% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 20% 9%
64% 60% 50% BTTS BTTS 0% 40% 36%
36% 40% 50% Clean Sheets C S 0% 0% 18%
9% 20% 0% Failed to Score F T 100% 60% 64%
 
6.5 6 4 Corners for (avg) C F 4 3.4 3.4
4.2 2.4 2.5 Corners against (avg) C A 7.5 6.4 7.7
0.9 0.8 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1 1 1.5
0 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
12 11.2 12.5 Shots (avg) S ( 4 4.2 5.1
5.4 5.8 6.5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 1.5 2.2 2.1
29% 24% 23% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 36% 26%
 
6.4 5.4 5 Shots against (avg) S A 18 15.6 12.9
2.6 2.4 2.5 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 7 6.2 4.9
Key stats in Premier Division this season:
  • All of UCD's away-matches have had more than 1,5 goals.
  • Derry City have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Derry City have scored more than double the goals of UCD.
  • Derry City have won at least twice as many corners as they have conceded at home.
  • UCD have conceded at least twice as many corners as they have won.
  • UCD have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • UCD have failed to keep a clean sheet in all their away matches.
  • UCD have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • UCD have the fewest clean sheets (0) away in Premier Division
  • UCD have the fewest points (1) away in Premier Division
  • UCD have the fewest scored goals (6) in Premier Division
  • UCD have the fewest scored goals in the first half (0) in Premier Division
  • UCD have the most conceded goals (13) away in Premier Division
  • UCD have the most conceded goals (20) in Premier Division
  • UCD have the most matches under the total-line (7) in Premier Division
  • UCD have the the worst goal difference (-14) in Premier Division
  • UCD have the the worst goal difference (-9) away in Premier Division
  • UCD have yet to win a game.
  • UCD haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.
  • UCD is in the worst form (0-2-4)

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Derry City 11 7 3 1 17 9 5 3 1 1 7 4 6 4 2 0 10 5 8 24
2 Shamrock Rovers 11 7 2 2 17 7 6 5 1 0 11 3 5 2 1 2 6 4 10 23
3 St Patrick's 11 5 2 4 13 8 5 2 2 1 5 3 6 3 0 3 8 5 5 17
4 Sligo Rovers 11 4 4 3 14 10 5 1 2 2 5 5 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 16
5 Dundalk 11 3 6 2 12 8 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 0 4 2 3 5 4 15
6 Bohemians 11 3 6 2 15 12 5 1 3 1 7 7 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 15
7 Drogheda United 11 3 4 4 13 17 6 2 2 2 7 9 5 1 2 2 6 8 -4 13
8 Shelbourne 11 3 3 5 9 16 6 0 1 5 3 14 5 3 2 0 6 2 -7 12
9 Finn Harps 11 1 4 6 10 19 6 0 2 4 4 11 5 1 2 2 6 8 -9 7
10 UCD 11 0 4 7 6 20 6 0 3 3 2 7 5 0 1 4 4 13 -14 4

Read more about Premier Division

The League of Ireland Premier Division, also known as the SSE Aitricity League Premier Division, is the highest level of football in the Republic of Ireland. It also has teams from Northern Ireland participating. The season runs from February to October with ten teams playing 36 matches each.