Segunda Liga prediction and preview: Chaves modest favorites to beat Penafiel

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Competition: Portugal Segunda Liga
Competition: Mon 29.March
Match begins: 20:00 (UTC)
Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira (9000 seats)

Chaves perform at a high level so far being 6th in the table. Penafiel can look both up and down from their 7th position.

Insights:
  • Penafiel have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

We should expect both teams to be fresh and ready for this match, as there is some time since both teams last played. Let's have a look at how the teams are doing!

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Chaves form and stats

Chaves have played 12 Segunda Liga games at their own stadium so far this season, resulting in 3-5-4 (wins-draws-losses). Three draws from their last three home games means a steady supply of points here at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, but a victory now would be sweet for Chaves.

The spoils were shared after 90 minutes before that, a home game that ended 1-1 versus Porto II.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Chaves have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found twelve games) they have won two times, drawn six and lost four.

Chaves aren't scoring a lot here at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in the league, with only 9 goals from 12 games. Chaves have conceded 12 in these home matches.

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Penafiel form and stats

The story so far for the visiting team on their Segunda Liga travels is 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats.

Penafiel's last game ended in a draw, the home match versus Casa Pia that finished 1-1. A 0-0 draw at Vilafranquense's stadium before that.

Penafiel are the outsiders in this one, but not by much. Their performance in similar games (being the away team and moderate outsiders) is two wins, zero draws and nine defeats. From a total of eleven matches.

Penafiel have scored 15 goals on their travels this season, from 12 away games in the league. 17 goals have been conceded by Penafiel in these games. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 0 of these goals has been conceded in their last 3 away matches.

Head 2 Head

The two sides played each other earlier this season: Penafiel - Chaves 1-0. H2H stats regardless of arena (last ten matches): Chaves four wins, three draws and Penafiel three victories. As for goals, three matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), seven games had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

PenafielR. Rodrigues Tavares
R. Rodrigues Tavares
7 goals
PenafielP. Rodrigues Cabral
P. Rodrigues Cabral
5 goals
ChavesL. Rocha Rodrigues
L. Rocha Rodrigues
4 goals

Chaves missing players

Penafiel missing players

Chaves Penafiel
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
25 12 2 Played P 4 12 25
11 3 0 Won W 1 4 10
7 5 1 Drew D 0 3 7
7 4 1 Lost L 3 5 8
31 9 1 Scored S 4 15 32
25 12 2 Conceded C 8 17 29
88% 75% 50% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 83% 88%
64% 58% 50% Over 1.5 O 1.5 75% 67% 64%
44% 33% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 75% 58% 52%
16% 8% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 50% 33% 28%
4% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 17% 8%
52% 42% 50% BTTS BTTS 75% 58% 56%
28% 33% 50% Clean Sheets C S 25% 33% 40%
32% 50% 50% Failed to Score F T 0% 25% 16%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
3 2.7 0.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2.5 2 2.4
1 0 0 Red cards R C 1 1 1
 
11.9 14.6 14 Shots (avg) S ( 10.2 9.5 9.5
4.3 4.7 5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3.2 3.6 3.6
29% 16% 10% Goal Efficiency G E 31% 35% 36%
Key stats in Segunda Liga this season:
  • Penafiel have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Estoril 25 17 5 3 41 17 12 7 4 1 24 12 13 10 1 2 17 5 24 56
2 Feirense 25 14 5 6 35 21 13 7 2 4 17 13 12 7 3 2 18 8 14 47
3 Académica 25 13 7 5 32 21 12 7 2 3 17 12 13 6 5 2 15 9 11 46
4 Vizela 25 12 9 4 38 28 13 9 3 1 21 11 12 3 6 3 17 17 10 45
5 Arouca 25 10 8 7 26 22 12 5 4 3 10 9 13 5 4 4 16 13 4 38
6 Chaves 24 10 7 7 30 25 12 3 5 4 9 12 12 7 2 3 21 13 5 37
7 Penafiel 25 10 7 8 32 29 13 6 4 3 17 12 12 4 3 5 15 17 3 37
8 Casa Pia 25 8 10 7 31 34 13 5 4 4 17 18 12 3 6 3 14 16 -3 34
9 Benfica II 25 9 6 10 42 34 12 7 2 3 23 13 13 2 4 7 19 21 8 33
10 Mafra 25 9 6 10 29 31 12 6 4 2 17 11 13 3 2 8 12 20 -2 33
11 Leixões 25 7 9 9 25 28 12 5 4 3 15 12 13 2 5 6 10 16 -3 30
12 Sporting Covilhã 25 7 8 10 26 29 12 4 4 4 16 16 13 3 4 6 10 13 -3 29
13 Academico Viseu 25 6 8 11 22 32 12 3 4 5 9 15 13 3 4 6 13 17 -10 26
14 Vilafranquense 24 3 14 7 24 33 12 1 9 2 11 14 12 2 5 5 13 19 -9 23
15 Cova Piedade 25 5 8 12 27 38 13 2 5 6 12 20 12 3 3 6 15 18 -11 23
16 UD Oliveirense 25 5 8 12 20 34 13 2 5 6 10 16 12 3 3 6 10 18 -14 23
17 Porto II 25 4 9 12 28 38 13 3 2 8 18 21 12 1 7 4 10 17 -10 21
18 Varzim 25 5 6 14 17 31 13 2 3 8 8 17 12 3 3 6 9 14 -14 21

Read more about Segunda Liga

The Segunda Liga, or LigaPro, is the second level of Portuguese football. It has 18 teams each playing 34 fixtures to decide the final league table. The top two teams are promoted to the top level in Portugal (Primeira Liga) while the bottom two are relegated.