Eerste Divisie match prediction: Little separates MVV Maastricht and Helmond Sport in quality

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Competition: Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Competition: Fri 22.January
Match begins: 17:45 (UTC)
Venue: De Geusselt (10000 seats)

MVV Maastricht are welcoming Helmond Sport for another important game after their 2-2 result against 15th-placed Excelsior (after extra-time, 4-5 on penalties).

Insights:
  • MVV Maastricht has the the worst goal difference (-13) at home in Eerste Divisie
  • Helmond Sport have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

These are busy days for the home team, as they were in action only three days ago in the KNVB Beker. This match was also played here at De Geusselt. With two consecutive home games the intense schedule is somewhat softened. Still, Helmond Sport have had more rest.

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MVV Maastricht form and stats

With 2 Eerste Divisie wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats from their home games, MVV Maastricht, who have the the worst goal difference (-13) at home in Eerste Divisie, are certainly not brimming with confidence.

MVV Maastricht haven't scored a league goal since they found the net 258 minutes ago. J. Schroijen scored that one.

Maastricht drew their last game, also a home match. Excelsior (after extra-time, 4-5 on penalties) (placed 15th) was the opponent, 2-2 the score. A Eerste Divisie defeat was the result before that one, 0-3 away at Go Ahead Eagles.

The MVV Maastricht goalkeeper Mike Havekotte was crucial in the match against Excelsior (after extra-time, 4-5 on penalties) last time out, making nine saves.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Maastricht have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found seven matches with the results: Won two, drawn three and lost two.

MVV Maastricht have proved capable of finding the net in their games here at De Geusselt with 14 goals in 9 league matches. As for conceded goals, Maastricht's unpleasant statistic is 27 goals surrendered. This has been a stadium of sighs so far as Maastricht have let the opposition score 27 times, an average of more than three per game.

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Helmond Sport form and stats

The visitors are W2-D5-L3 on the road this term. That's in the Eerste Divisie. It's three draws from Helmond's last three away games, a decent catch but one that could be so much better.

Impressive finishing from Arno Van Keilegom, Karim Loukili, Lance Duijvestijn and Jelle Goselink secured the home win 4-0 against FC Den Bosch in their previous game. Before that, Helmond Sport travelled to Jong Ajax and returned home with a draw after the game finished 2-2.

As you can tell from the results above, Helmond Sport was very dominant against FC Den Bosch, winning the match with a scoreline that even the finest fortune teller couldn't predict. 4-0 (!) with Arno Van Keilegom, Karim Loukili, Lance Duijvestijn and Jelle Goselink providing the goals.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Helmond playing away and similar expectations, we found one relevant match. Results were zero Helmond Sport wins, one draw and zero defeats.

Helmond have scored 13 goals on their travels this season, from 10 away games in the league. Helmond's defence is not exactly unbeatable as they have conceded 16 goals from these trips.

Head 2 Head

The last H2H meeting was Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht 1-1, played this season. As for the last ten games between these two teams, there's five Maastricht victories, three draws and two Helmond Sport wins. Over/under statistics; six of these games ended with three goals or more, four matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

MaastrichtJ. Schroijen
J. Schroijen
8 goals
Helmond SportK. Loukili
K. Loukili
8 goals
Helmond SportJ. Goselink
J. Goselink
5 goals

MVV Maastricht missing players

Helmond Sport missing players

MVV Maastricht Helmond Sport
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
20 9 2 Played P 2 10 20
4 2 1 Won W 1 2 6
4 1 1 Drew D 1 5 6
12 6 0 Lost L 0 3 8
22 14 6 Scored S 4 13 28
47 27 4 Conceded C 3 16 32
95% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 90% 95%
90% 100% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 90% 85%
60% 78% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 70% 60%
40% 67% 100% Over 3.5 O 3.5 50% 40% 35%
30% 56% 50% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 10%
50% 67% 100% BTTS BTTS 100% 70% 60%
15% 11% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 10% 15%
40% 22% 0% Failed to Score F T 0% 30% 30%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
1.6 1.4 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 0.5 2.2 1.9
1 0 0 Red cards R C 0 1 1
 
10.5 12.6 17.5 Shots (avg) S ( 10.5 11.3 11.8
4 5.2 9 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2.5 4 5
28% 30% 33% Goal Efficiency G E 80% 32% 28%
Key stats in Eerste Divisie this season:
  • All of MVV Maastricht's home-matches have had more than 1,5 goals.
  • Helmond Sport have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • MVV Maastricht has the the worst goal difference (-13) at home in Eerste Divisie
  • MVV Maastricht have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • MVV Maastricht have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • MVV Maastricht haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 SC Cambuur 20 15 2 3 58 18 10 7 0 3 29 11 10 8 2 0 29 7 40 47
2 Almere City 20 14 5 1 47 24 10 8 2 0 19 2 10 6 3 1 28 22 23 47
3 Graafschap 20 13 2 5 41 29 10 7 1 2 22 13 10 6 1 3 19 16 12 41
4 NAC Breda 20 11 4 5 36 18 10 6 1 3 20 11 10 5 3 2 16 7 18 37
5 Go Ahead Eagles 20 10 5 5 27 15 10 4 3 3 12 7 10 6 2 2 15 8 12 35
6 NEC 20 10 5 5 36 25 10 5 3 2 18 10 10 5 2 3 18 15 11 35
7 FC Volendam 20 9 7 4 44 23 10 4 3 3 24 10 10 5 4 1 20 13 21 34
8 Telstar 20 9 4 7 38 29 10 4 2 4 23 15 10 5 2 3 15 14 9 31
9 FC Eindhoven 20 7 6 7 32 35 10 4 3 3 25 19 10 3 3 4 7 16 -3 27
10 Roda JC Kerkrade 20 6 8 6 30 29 10 4 4 2 17 11 10 2 4 4 13 18 1 26
11 Jong Ajax 20 7 5 8 35 38 10 3 3 4 16 20 10 4 2 4 19 18 -3 26
12 Jong Utrecht 20 8 1 11 31 37 11 4 0 7 15 19 9 4 1 4 16 18 -6 25
13 FC Oss 20 7 4 9 17 28 10 4 2 4 12 13 10 3 2 5 5 15 -11 25
14 Helmond Sport 20 6 6 8 28 32 10 4 1 5 15 16 10 2 5 3 13 16 -4 24
15 Excelsior 20 7 2 11 35 35 10 4 0 6 18 18 10 3 2 5 17 17 0 23
16 Jong PSV 20 5 5 10 31 39 10 1 4 5 12 18 10 4 1 5 19 21 -8 20
17 MVV Maastricht 20 4 4 12 22 47 9 2 1 6 14 27 11 2 3 6 8 20 -25 16
18 Jong AZ 20 4 3 13 27 53 10 1 3 6 18 29 10 3 0 7 9 24 -26 15
19 FC Dordrecht 20 3 3 14 18 51 10 2 3 5 11 16 10 1 0 9 7 35 -33 12
20 FC Den Bosch 20 2 5 13 19 47 10 2 4 4 13 14 10 0 1 9 6 33 -28 11

Read more about Eerste Divisie

The Eerste Divisie, meaning “First Division”, is the second highest level of football in the Netherlands. 20 teams play two fixtures against each other to form a final league table after 380 games. The winning team is promoted with a creative playoff system deciding whether more teams promote.