J-League match prediction: Little separates Sagan Tosu and Albirex Niigata in quality

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Competition: Japan J-League
Competition: Sat 20.May
Match begins: 08:00 (UTC)
Venue: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match-goers at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium haven’t celebrated many wins this season, with Sagan Tosu decaying in the 13th position. The guesting Albirex Niigata will try to shield their higher league spot in this match.

Insights:
  • Sagan Tosu have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Albirex Niigata have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

It's time to recharge all electronic entertainment devices for Albirex Niigata, who are travelling more than 1100 kilometers to play this game.

Both teams have had enough days rest since their last exertion in an official match. Let's look for an enthusiastic game!

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Sagan Tosu form and stats

The story so far in the J-League for Sagan Tosu at their home stadium (Ekimae Real Estate Stadium) is 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats.

Nothing to worry about in defence for Sagan, as their goalkeeper Il-Gyu Park has completely shut out the opponents for 218 minutes in the J-League.

Sagan Tosu drew their last game, 0-0 away at Avispa Fukuoka (placed 9th). Goalkeeper Il-Kyu got the top rating on the team in that game; 7.54 out of ten. Il-Kyu topped it up with a clean sheet.

In the preceding match a 2-0 victory visiting Urawa Reds.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Sagan Tosu have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found 8 matches with the results: Won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4.

Low on goals? In this team's last 12 league matches, 9 have had less than three goals (under 2.5).

Some members of the home team might already be thinking of their next match, the Nabisco Cup game versus Jubilo Iwata in only four days. This game is also played here at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

The goals haven't exactly been flowing for Sagan here at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in the league, with less than one goal per game on average (5 from 6 games). Sagan Tosu have conceded 10 from these games.

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Albirex Niigata form and stats

There's been little loot from Albirex Niigata's travels as they have only collected 5 points from 6 away games in the J-League. Albirex Niigata only have 1 win to counter their 3 defeats and 2 draws. The travelling fans think it's time that their travel expenses are covered with some points now, as Albirex Niigata have lost on their last two travels.

Albirex go into this game after a win, the home game against Yokohama F. Marinos that ended 2-1. That win felt sweet as this side had gone four league rounds without winning. Midfield player Ito was the top player of the team with a match rating of 8.45/10. Ito scored one goal, hit two key passes, dribled past the opponent 1 of 2 times and had 54 successful passes (of 63 total).

Preceding that match was the 0-0 draw at home vs Kashiwa Reysol.

As mentioned above, this is an open game with no clear favourite. We have found 5 similar matches played by Albirex Niigata in our archives, and the results are: 0 wins for Albirex Niigata, 2 draws and 3 defeats.

A quick return to home after this game, as Albirex Niigata are hosting Avispa Fukuoka in the Nabisco Cup only four days away.

Albirex have conceded 8 goals in these away matches.

Head 2 Head

H2H stats regardless of arena (last ten matches): Sagan Tosu three wins, one draw and Albirex Niigata six victories. As for goals, three matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), seven games had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

Albirex NiigataR. Ito
R. Ito
7 goals
Albirex NiigataS. Ota
S. Ota
4 goals
Sagan TosuF. Honda
F. Honda
3 goals

Sagan Tosu missing players

Albirex Niigata missing players

Sagan Tosu Albirex Niigata
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
13 6 1 Played P 1 6 13
4 2 1 Won W 0 1 4
3 1 0 Drew D 0 2 4
6 3 0 Lost L 1 3 5
12 5 1 Scored S 0 6 15
17 10 0 Conceded C 1 8 18
92% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 83% 85%
54% 50% 0% Over 1.5 O 1.5 0% 67% 69%
31% 33% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 67% 62%
23% 33% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 17% 31%
15% 17% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 8%
46% 50% 0% BTTS BTTS 0% 67% 62%
31% 33% 100% Clean Sheets C S 0% 17% 23%
31% 17% 0% Failed to Score F T 100% 33% 31%
 
4.7 4.8 4 Corners for (avg) C F 4 3.5 4.2
5.1 4.5 3 Corners against (avg) C A 4 5.5 5.7
1.2 1 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 3 2 1.3
2 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
8.7 10.7 9 Shots (avg) S ( 9 9.3 11.2
2.8 3.3 3 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2 3 4
32% 25% 33% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 33% 29%
 
16.8 15.7 5 Shots against (avg) S A 10 12.8 13.3
5.8 6.3 2 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 5 5 4.5
Key stats in J-League this season:
  • Albirex Niigata have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Sagan Tosu have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Sagan Tosu haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Vissel Kobe 13 9 2 2 28 8 8 5 1 2 14 4 5 4 1 0 14 4 20 29
2 Yokohama F. Marinos 13 7 3 3 26 15 6 4 2 0 15 4 7 3 1 3 11 11 11 24
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 7 2 3 16 10 6 3 1 2 7 5 6 4 1 1 9 5 6 23
4 Nagoya Grampus 13 6 5 2 16 10 6 2 4 0 6 4 7 4 1 2 10 6 6 23
5 Kashima Antlers 13 7 1 5 19 13 6 2 1 3 9 9 7 5 0 2 10 4 6 22
6 Urawa Reds 11 6 2 3 16 11 5 4 0 1 11 6 6 2 2 2 5 5 5 20
7 Cerezo Osaka 13 6 2 5 16 15 7 3 1 3 9 9 6 3 1 2 7 6 1 20
8 Consadole Sapporo 13 5 4 4 29 24 6 2 1 3 13 11 7 3 3 1 16 13 5 19
9 Avispa Fukuoka 13 5 4 4 15 16 7 5 1 1 9 6 6 0 3 3 6 10 -1 19
10 Kawasaki Frontale 13 5 3 5 16 16 6 1 3 2 5 6 7 4 0 3 11 10 0 18
11 Tokyo 13 5 3 5 16 18 6 4 1 1 12 7 7 1 2 4 4 11 -2 18
12 Albirex Niigata 13 4 4 5 15 18 7 3 2 2 9 10 6 1 2 3 6 8 -3 16
13 Sagan Tosu 13 4 3 6 12 17 6 2 1 3 5 10 7 2 2 3 7 7 -5 15
14 Kyoto Sanga 13 4 1 8 15 20 7 2 0 5 6 11 6 2 1 3 9 9 -5 13
15 Shonan Bellmare 12 2 5 5 21 22 6 1 2 3 10 12 6 1 3 2 11 10 -1 11
16 Kashiwa Reysol 13 2 5 6 8 16 7 1 3 3 5 11 6 1 2 3 3 5 -8 11
17 Yokohama 13 2 3 8 10 30 7 1 1 5 5 16 6 1 2 3 5 14 -20 9
18 Gamba Osaka 13 1 4 8 13 28 6 1 3 2 8 8 7 0 1 6 5 20 -15 7