J-League prediction and preview: Nagoya Grampus modest favorites to beat Oita Trinita

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Competition: Japan J-League
Competition: Sat 28.November
Match begins: 05:00 (UTC)
Venue: Nagoya Mizuho Athletic Stadium (27000 seats)

3rd position in the J-League table for Nagoya Grampus so far, a good performance. The home supporters hope for more joy as 12th-placed Oita Trinita visits Nagoya Mizuho Athletic Stadium.

Insights:
  • Nagoya Grampus is in the best form (4-1-1)
  • Oita Trinita have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

There has not been much time to rest for the guests, as they played a J-League game only three days ago.

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Nagoya Grampus form and stats

Nagoya Grampus, who have the most clean sheets (13) in J-League, have performed here at Nagoya Mizuho Athletic Stadium this season with 11 wins from 14 J-League matches. Some points have been lost, as they have drawn 1 game and lost 2. Nagoya Grampus has won so many consecutive home games (eight in a row) that they struggle to remember the last time points were lost here at Nagoya Mizuho Athletic Stadium. We remember; it was Kashima Antlers.

Grampus's last game was hosting Shonan Bellmare (placed 16th) and winning 3-1. Before that game, the 1-0 home victory against Tokyo.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Grampus have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found eight games) they have won four times, drawn three and lost one.

The Grampus fans have had their share of opportunities to cheer home goals this season, having seen 27 goals in 14 league matches. Grampus have only conceded 12 from their league home games. For more goal stats, check the Statistics tab above. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 1 of these goals has been conceded in their last 3 home matches.

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Oita Trinita form and stats

As the visiting team in J-League matches, Oita Trinita have produced an overall stat of 5-2-6 so far.

Trinita's previous game was their home loss versus Cerezo Osaka (0-1). Prior to that match, a home win 1-0 against Kawasaki Frontale.

We have checked recent matches where Trinita have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those twelve games were two victories, four draws and six defeats.

Trinita have a decent goal production going in their away games, although not fantastic. In 13 league away games 19 goals have been scored. Trinita's defence is not exactly unbeatable as they have conceded 22 goals from these trips.

Head 2 Head

The dueling parties have met before this season: Oita Trinita - Grampus 0-3. Head-2-head stats last ten meetings: four - four - two (Grampus wins - draws - Oita Trinita wins). As for goals, six matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), four had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

Nagoya GrampusM. dos Santos Castro
M. dos Santos Castro
9 goals
Oita TrinitaT. Tanaka
T. Tanaka
8 goals
Nagoya GrampusN. Maeda
N. Maeda
6 goals

Nagoya Grampus missing players

Oita Trinita missing players

Total First Half Second Half
Nagoya Grampus Oita Trinita
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
30 14 4 Played P 5 13 28
17 11 3 Won W 2 5 10
4 1 0 Drew D 0 2 6
9 2 1 Lost L 3 6 12
43 27 10 Scored S 6 19 30
28 12 5 Conceded C 7 22 38
93% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 93%
60% 57% 75% Over 1.5 O 1.5 80% 92% 68%
47% 57% 75% Over 2.5 O 2.5 40% 62% 43%
20% 36% 25% Over 3.5 O 3.5 20% 31% 21%
7% 7% 25% Over 4.5 O 4.5 20% 23% 14%
40% 50% 75% BTTS BTTS 40% 62% 43%
43% 43% 0% Clean Sheets C S 20% 15% 29%
23% 7% 25% Failed to Score F T 40% 23% 36%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
1 1.1 1 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 0.4 0.2 0.4
3 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
9.2 10 11 Shots (avg) S ( 8 8.8 8.4
4 5 5.2 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3 3.4 3.4
36% 39% 48% Goal Efficiency G E 40% 43% 32%
Key stats in J-League this season:
  • Nagoya Grampus has the fewest conceded goals in the second half (14) in J-League
  • Nagoya Grampus has the most clean sheets (13) in J-League
  • Nagoya Grampus have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Nagoya Grampus have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded at home.
  • Nagoya Grampus haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.
  • Nagoya Grampus is in the best form (4-1-1)
  • Oita Trinita have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Oita Trinita haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Kawasaki Frontale 30 24 3 3 79 25 16 14 1 1 45 14 14 10 2 2 34 11 54 75
2 Gamba Osaka 30 18 4 8 41 38 15 8 1 6 18 20 15 10 3 2 23 18 3 58
3 Nagoya Grampus 30 17 4 9 43 28 14 11 1 2 27 12 16 6 3 7 16 16 15 55
4 Cerezo Osaka 29 16 4 9 40 33 14 7 3 4 18 11 15 9 1 5 22 22 7 52
5 Kashima Antlers 31 16 4 11 48 43 14 6 4 4 20 21 17 10 0 7 28 22 5 52
6 Tokyo 32 15 6 11 45 42 15 8 0 7 21 22 17 7 6 4 24 20 3 51
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 33 14 5 14 68 56 17 9 2 6 42 26 16 5 3 8 26 30 12 47
8 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 30 13 8 9 44 32 15 7 4 4 27 17 15 6 4 5 17 15 12 47
9 Urawa Reds 30 13 6 11 42 47 15 5 3 7 18 20 15 8 3 4 24 27 -5 45
10 Kashiwa Reysol 28 13 5 10 54 41 14 5 3 6 27 25 14 8 2 4 27 16 13 44
11 Vissel Kobe 33 9 9 15 50 58 17 4 5 8 25 30 16 5 4 7 25 28 -8 36
12 Oita Trinita 28 10 6 12 30 38 15 5 4 6 11 16 13 5 2 6 19 22 -8 36
13 Consadole Sapporo 30 9 7 14 41 52 16 5 5 6 26 26 14 4 2 8 15 26 -11 34
14 Sagan Tosu 29 6 11 12 30 37 15 3 5 7 14 17 14 3 6 5 16 20 -7 29
15 Yokohama 29 8 4 17 34 55 14 5 1 8 18 28 15 3 3 9 16 27 -21 28
16 Shonan Bellmare 29 6 6 17 26 43 15 4 4 7 10 15 14 2 2 10 16 28 -17 24
17 Shimizu S-Pulse 29 6 5 18 41 62 14 4 1 9 27 29 15 2 4 9 14 33 -21 23
18 Vegalta Sendai 30 4 9 17 31 57 15 0 6 9 14 30 15 4 3 8 17 27 -26 21

Table
  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Kawasaki Frontale 30 24 3 3 79 25 16 14 1 1 45 14 14 10 2 2 34 11 54 75
2 Gamba Osaka 30 18 4 8 41 38 15 8 1 6 18 20 15 10 3 2 23 18 3 58
3 Nagoya Grampus 30 17 4 9 43 28 14 11 1 2 27 12 16 6 3 7 16 16 15 55
4 Cerezo Osaka 29 16 4 9 40 33 14 7 3 4 18 11 15 9 1 5 22 22 7 52
5 Kashima Antlers 31 16 4 11 48 43 14 6 4 4 20 21 17 10 0 7 28 22 5 52
6 Tokyo 32 15 6 11 45 42 15 8 0 7 21 22 17 7 6 4 24 20 3 51
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 33 14 5 14 68 56 17 9 2 6 42 26 16 5 3 8 26 30 12 47
8 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 30 13 8 9 44 32 15 7 4 4 27 17 15 6 4 5 17 15 12 47
9 Urawa Reds 30 13 6 11 42 47 15 5 3 7 18 20 15 8 3 4 24 27 -5 45
10 Kashiwa Reysol 28 13 5 10 54 41 14 5 3 6 27 25 14 8 2 4 27 16 13 44
11 Vissel Kobe 33 9 9 15 50 58 17 4 5 8 25 30 16 5 4 7 25 28 -8 36
12 Oita Trinita 28 10 6 12 30 38 15 5 4 6 11 16 13 5 2 6 19 22 -8 36
13 Consadole Sapporo 30 9 7 14 41 52 16 5 5 6 26 26 14 4 2 8 15 26 -11 34
14 Sagan Tosu 29 6 11 12 30 37 15 3 5 7 14 17 14 3 6 5 16 20 -7 29
15 Yokohama 29 8 4 17 34 55 14 5 1 8 18 28 15 3 3 9 16 27 -21 28
16 Shonan Bellmare 29 6 6 17 26 43 15 4 4 7 10 15 14 2 2 10 16 28 -17 24
17 Shimizu S-Pulse 29 6 5 18 41 62 14 4 1 9 27 29 15 2 4 9 14 33 -21 23
18 Vegalta Sendai 30 4 9 17 31 57 15 0 6 9 14 30 15 4 3 8 17 27 -26 21

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