Serie A prediction and preview: Atalanta modest favorites to beat Napoli

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Competition: Italy Serie A
Competition: Sun 21.February
Match begins: 17:00 (UTC)
Venue: Gewiss Stadium

Both teams are enjoying a good season so far and games like this could be decisive. Here's the preview for Atalanta - Napoli!

Insights:
  • Atalanta have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Napoli have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded.

There has not been much time to rest for the guests, as they played a Europa League game only three days ago. That game was also an away game, at Granada. It will be interesting to see if they are fully ready and rested for this match, and/or if some changes in the lineup is necessary.

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Atalanta form and stats

The story so far in the Serie A for Atalanta at their home stadium (Gewiss Stadium) is 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats.

A strong away win for Atalanta against Cagliari the last match, as Luis Muriel were on target. Before that game, the 3-1 home victory against Napoli.

World class coaching! That was the thoughts of G. Gasperini when Luis Muriel scored the winning goal after coming on as a substitute in the 69th minute.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Atalanta have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found eight games) they have won four times, drawn two and lost two.

There's a new fixture coming up fairly quickly for Atalanta, as the Champions League home game vs Real Madrid is only three days away.

Goals decide football matches and Atalanta are scoring many of them at home; 26 on target from 11 league matches. 16 goals have been conceded.

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Napoli form and stats

The visitors are W6-D0-L4 on the road this term. That's in the Serie A. The travelling fans think it's time that their travel expenses are covered with some points now, as Napoli have lost on their last two travels.

It might be tough going out on the road again for Napoli, facing their second straight away game. Especially as the previous game, ended with a defeat 0-2 versus Granada. Prior to that match, a home win 1-0 against Juventus in the Serie A.

We have checked recent matches where Napoli have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those six games were one victory, zero draws and five defeats.

A quick return to home after this game, as Napoli are hosting Granada in the Europa League only four days away.

Napoli has displayed an ability to score goals in away matches in the league this season, 17 goals from 10 games. 11 goals have been conceded by Napoli in these games. It's worth mentioning that 6 of these goals has been conceded in their last 3 away matches.

Head 2 Head

Napoli - Atalanta 4-1 was the story when these teams last met, earlier this season. Last ten meetings between the teams: Atalanta won four, Napoli won four and two draws. seven games with over 2,5 goals, three matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

AtalantaL. Muriel Fruto
L. Muriel Fruto
13 goals
NapoliL. Insigne
L. Insigne
10 goals
NapoliH. Lozano Bahena
H. Lozano Bahena
9 goals

Atalanta missing players

Napoli missing players

Atalanta Napoli
Total Home vs top Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
22 11 2 Played P 1 10 21
11 5 1 Won W 0 6 13
7 3 1 Drew D 0 0 1
4 3 0 Lost L 1 4 7
49 26 5 Scored S 0 17 45
29 16 2 Conceded C 1 11 21
91% 91% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 100%
86% 91% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 0% 80% 86%
68% 73% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 60% 62%
50% 55% 50% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 30% 38%
36% 36% 50% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 10% 19%
68% 64% 100% BTTS BTTS 0% 50% 48%
27% 27% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 30% 38%
14% 18% 0% Failed to Score F T 100% 20% 14%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
1.9 1.5 1.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 3 1.9 1.9
0 0 0 Red cards R C 1 1 2
 
16.1 16.5 11 Shots (avg) S ( 20 18.2 17.3
5.7 5.5 4.5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3 5.4 6.1
39% 43% 56% Goal Efficiency G E 0% 31% 35%
Key stats in Serie A this season:
  • Atalanta have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Napoli have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded.
  • Napoli haven’t played a single 0-0 game.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Inter 22 15 5 2 54 24 11 9 1 1 32 14 11 6 4 1 22 10 30 50
2 Milan 22 15 4 3 45 25 11 6 3 2 24 15 11 9 1 1 21 10 20 49
3 Roma 22 13 4 5 47 35 12 9 3 0 31 13 10 4 1 5 16 22 12 43
4 Juventus 21 12 6 3 41 19 10 7 2 1 20 8 11 5 4 2 21 11 22 42
5 Napoli 21 13 1 7 45 21 11 7 1 3 28 10 10 6 0 4 17 11 24 40
6 Atalanta 22 11 7 4 49 29 11 5 3 3 26 16 11 6 4 1 23 13 20 40
7 Lazio 22 12 4 6 37 30 11 6 2 3 17 14 11 6 2 3 20 16 7 40
8 Sassuolo 22 9 7 6 36 33 10 3 4 3 14 14 12 6 3 3 22 19 3 34
9 Hellas Verona 22 9 6 7 28 24 11 6 2 3 17 11 11 3 4 4 11 13 4 33
10 Sampdoria 22 9 3 10 33 33 11 5 1 5 19 17 11 4 2 5 14 16 0 30
11 Genoa 22 6 7 9 24 31 11 4 2 5 16 17 11 2 5 4 8 14 -7 25
12 Bologna 22 6 6 10 29 36 11 4 3 4 19 20 11 2 3 6 10 16 -7 24
13 Spezia 22 6 6 10 30 38 11 2 3 6 12 19 11 4 3 4 18 19 -8 24
14 Udinese 22 6 6 10 23 31 11 3 3 5 9 12 11 3 3 5 14 19 -8 24
15 Benevento 22 6 6 10 25 42 11 2 4 5 12 21 11 4 2 5 13 21 -17 24
16 Fiorentina 22 5 7 10 22 35 11 4 4 3 11 11 11 1 3 7 11 24 -13 22
17 Torino 22 2 11 9 32 41 11 0 7 4 14 19 11 2 4 5 18 22 -9 17
18 Cagliari 22 3 6 13 24 40 11 2 3 6 13 20 11 1 3 7 11 20 -16 15
19 Parma 22 2 7 13 15 43 11 1 4 6 3 18 11 1 3 7 12 25 -28 13
20 Crotone 22 3 3 16 23 52 11 3 1 7 14 22 11 0 2 9 9 30 -29 12

Atalanta:
Napoli:

Read more about Serie A

Serie A is the division at the top of the Italian football league system and regarded as one of the top leagues of the world. 20 teams play each other home and away to create a final league table after 380 fixtures. The winners are titled “Campione d’Italia” (Champion of Italy), often referred to as the scudetto.