Persian Gulf Pro League match prediction: Little separates Persepolis and Esteghlal in quality

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Competition: Iran Persian Gulf Pro League
Competition: Thu 06.February
Match begins: 12:00 (UTC)
Venue: Azadi Stadium (76807 seats)

The Persepolis & Esteghlal managers Gabriel Humberto Calderón and Farhad Majidi are both dreading and looking forward to this decisive game in the upper regions of the Persian Gulf Pro League league table.

It's no vacation for neither Persepolis nor Esteghlal as both were in action only a few days ago. Expect some tired legs on the pitch and/or possibly some changes to the lineups.

This is a local derby, usually meaning added tension and importance.

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Persepolis form and stats

The home supporters can't complain about results here at Azadi Stadium as Persepolis have scored 9 goals to get 19 points from 9 games. The overall stats in the Persian Gulf Pro League are 6-1-2 (wins-draws-losses).

The Persepolis goalkeeper Alireza Safar Beiranvand is looking to record 90 more "clean sheet" minutes as his team have now played 452 minutes without conceding a goal in the Persian Gulf Pro League.

The spoils were shared in Persepolis's previous game, also at home. Visiting Esteghlal (placed 4th) travelled back with a draw after a 0-0 scoreline. In the preceding match a 1-0 victory visiting Sanat Naft.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Persepolis have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found six matches with the results: Won three Drawn two Lost one.

Persepolis has scored 9 league goals at home this season, in 9 matches. Persepolis are not conceding a lot of goals here at Azadi Stadium in the league, averaging less than one per game. The total is 5 from 9 matches.

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Esteghlal form and stats

3-4-1 is the win-draw-loss statistic for Esteghlal, who have the most scored goals (35) in Persian Gulf Pro League, in their Persian Gulf Pro League matches away. The away team travel with confidence. Not since the Machine Sazi game have they lost an away game, meaning Esteghlal has taken points from eight away matches in a row.

Esteghlal are the visiting side once again, their previous game being the 0-0 draw at Persepolis (placed 1st). Prior to that match, a home win 2-1 against Naft Masjed Soleyman.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Esteghlal playing away and similar expectations, we found five relevant matches. Results were one Esteghlal win, two draws and two defeats.

With an average of more than two away goals per league game away, Esteghlal are regular goalscorers on their travels. 11 goals have been conceded by Esteghlal in these games.

Head 2 Head

This is not the first time this season these parties meet, as the history books show this recent fixture: Esteghlal - Persepolis 0-1. Persepolis-Esteghlal H2H statistics last ten meetings regardless of arena: Persepolis five wins, Esteghlal two wins, three draws. two of these ten matches had three or more goals (over 2,5).

Top Goalscorers

EsteghlalM. Ghaedi
M. Ghaedi
9 goals
EsteghlalC. Diabaté
C. Diabaté
8 goals
PersepolisM. Torabi
M. Torabi
7 goals

Persepolis missing players

Esteghlal missing players

Persepolis Esteghlal
Total Home vs top Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
19 10 2 Played P 2 9 18
13 6 1 Won W 1 3 9
2 2 0 Drew D 1 5 6
4 2 1 Lost L 0 1 3
23 9 2 Scored S 6 17 35
7 5 2 Conceded C 4 11 18
89% 80% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 89% 94%
37% 40% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 78% 78%
21% 20% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 67% 61%
5% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 100% 56% 39%
5% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 50% 11% 17%
11% 20% 0% BTTS BTTS 100% 67% 61%
68% 60% 50% Clean Sheets C S 0% 22% 28%
32% 40% 50% Failed to Score F T 0% 22% 17%
 
4.1 4.4 4.5 Corners for (avg) C F 6.5 4 5.3
3.3 2.7 4 Corners against (avg) C A 2 4.3 3.6
1.8 2.1 6 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 0.5 1.2 1.8
2 1 0 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
145 59 11 Total Shots T S 30 85 182
55 19 4 Shots on Target S O 15 41 82
33% 21% 0% Goal Efficiency G E 40% 41% 40%
Key stats in Persian Gulf Pro League this season:
  • Esteghlal has the fewest matches under the total-line (6)
  • Esteghlal has the most dropped points from leading position (13)
  • Esteghlal has the most matches over the total-line (11)
  • Esteghlal has the most scored goals (17) away
  • Esteghlal has the most scored goals (35)
  • Esteghlal has the most scored goals in the first half (15)
  • Esteghlal has the most scored goals in the second half (20)
  • Esteghlal have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Esteghlal have won significantly less corners away then at home.
  • Persepolis has the fewest conceded goals (7)
  • Persepolis has the fewest points from losing position (0)
  • Persepolis have scored at least twice as many goals as they have conceded.
  • Persepolis is in the best form (6-0-0)

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Persepolis 18 13 1 4 23 7 9 6 1 2 9 5 9 7 0 2 14 2 16 40
2 Sepahan 18 9 8 1 29 11 9 6 3 0 16 3 9 3 5 1 13 8 18 35
3 Tractor Sazi 18 10 3 5 21 16 9 7 1 1 12 6 9 3 2 4 9 10 5 33
4 Esteghlal 17 9 5 3 35 18 9 6 1 2 18 7 8 3 4 1 17 11 17 32
5 Padideh Khorasan 19 9 5 5 16 12 9 6 1 2 10 5 10 3 4 3 6 7 4 32
6 Sanat Naft 18 8 6 4 19 19 9 5 3 1 15 10 9 3 3 3 4 9 0 30
7 Foolad 18 7 6 5 15 11 8 4 2 2 6 2 10 3 4 3 9 9 4 27
8 Naft Masjed Soleyman 18 5 11 2 14 10 9 3 6 0 7 3 9 2 5 2 7 7 4 26
9 Machine Sazi 18 6 5 7 18 21 9 5 2 2 12 7 9 1 3 5 6 14 -3 23
10 Nassaji Mazandaran 18 4 7 7 18 25 10 3 4 3 11 14 8 1 3 4 7 11 -7 19
11 Saipa 18 4 6 8 17 23 9 2 4 3 7 11 9 2 2 5 10 12 -6 18
12 Zob Ahan 18 4 6 8 15 21 9 4 2 3 10 9 9 0 4 5 5 12 -6 18
13 Pars Jam Bushehr 18 2 9 7 14 19 10 2 7 1 12 10 8 0 2 6 2 9 -5 15
14 Paykan 18 3 4 11 24 33 9 3 1 5 16 17 9 0 3 6 8 16 -9 13
15 Gol Gohar 18 1 9 8 8 17 9 1 6 2 4 6 9 0 3 6 4 11 -9 12
16 Shahin Bushehr 18 1 7 10 11 34 8 0 5 3 4 13 10 1 2 7 7 21 -23 10