Liga Nacional preview: Can Marathón edge out victory against Motagua?

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Competition: Honduras Liga Nacional
Competition: Sun 07.May
Match begins: 21:30 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (18000 seats)

Motagua travel to Marathón and Estadio Yankel Rosenthal full of happy thoughts, but the hosting team is no muppet. More information on the fixture here!

Insights:
  • Marathón have the most scored goals (35) in Liga Nacional
  • Motagua have the most dropped points from leading position (27) in Liga Nacional

There’s little time for restitution or working hard at the training pitch these days, with both teams having played their last game less than four days ago.

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Marathón form and stats

Marathón, who have the most scored goals (35) in Liga Nacional, have collected 16 points from their Liga Nacional home games so far after 4-4-1.

The spoils were shared in Marathón's previous game, also at home. Visiting Motagua travelled back with a draw after a 0-0 scoreline.

A strong away win before that one, visiting Motagua and winning 2-1.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Marathón have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found 12 games) they have won 3 times, drawn 6 and lost 3.

Not much happening? In this team's last 14 league games, 11 have produced two goals or less.

Marathón are an "over 2,5 goals" team alone here at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in their league games, having scored an impressive 23 goals in 9 matches. It's been trouble in front of goal recently, as only 2 of these goals has been scored in their last three home matches. Marathón have conceded 11 in these home matches. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 1 of these goals has been conceded in their last three home matches.

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Motagua form and stats

5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. That’s the product of Motagua playing as the away team in the Liga Nacional this season. Visiting Motagua has seen their last two away games both end with a tied score and one point each.

Motagua has to pack their bags again for the second away game in a row. Last time they traveled to Marathón for a 0-0 draw.

The game before that, was lost at home, a 1-2 defeat against Marathón.

We have checked recent matches where Motagua have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those 11 games were 3 victories, 5 draws and 3 defeats.

Motagua have a decent goal production going in their away games, although not fantastic. In 9 league away games 13 goals have been scored. Motagua have conceded 11 goals in these away matches. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 1 of these goals has been conceded in their last three away matches.

Head 2 Head

Marathón have not lost in the last 5 matches (1-4-0) facing Motagua.

The teams involved played each other before this season: Marathón - Motagua 0-0. The match official got to use his red card when these clubs last faced each other, and the sinner was Santos (Motagua). The games between these teams sometimes lean towards being hostile, having seen 7 red cards from the last ten duels.

Top Goalscorers

MarathónC. Zúniga Bernárdez
C. Zúniga Bernárdez
19 goals
MarathónD. Ramírez
D. Ramírez
6 goals
MarathónI. Castillo
I. Castillo
3 goals

Marathón missing players

Motagua missing players

Marathón Motagua
Total Home vs top Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
42 21 6 Played P 5 21 42
17 10 3 Won W 1 7 16
14 7 0 Drew D 3 8 14
11 4 3 Lost L 1 6 12
61 34 9 Scored S 6 23 61
48 21 7 Conceded C 4 23 54
93% 95% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 80% 86% 93%
76% 76% 83% Over 1.5 O 1.5 60% 62% 71%
45% 38% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 40% 43% 60%
26% 24% 33% Over 3.5 O 3.5 20% 24% 38%
10% 10% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 5% 7%
55% 48% 33% BTTS BTTS 40% 43% 60%
36% 43% 50% Clean Sheets C S 40% 38% 26%
17% 14% 17% Failed to Score F T 40% 33% 21%
 
5.7 6.8 5.7 Corners for (avg) C F 3.4 4.1 4.7
5 3.7 6 Corners against (avg) C A 4.4 5.4 5.1
2.5 2.3 3.2 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 3 3.2 2.8
6 1 1 Red cards R C 0 3 3
 
10.4 11.8 10.3 Shots (avg) S ( 9.4 8.1 10.1
4 4.1 4.2 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3.8 3 3.9
35% 39% 36% Goal Efficiency G E 32% 37% 35%
 
8.6 8.3 9.7 Shots against (avg) S A 8 8.9 9.4
3.1 2.6 2.5 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 3.4 3.1 3.5
Key stats in Liga Nacional this season:
  • Marathón have the most scored goals (23) at home in Liga Nacional
  • Marathón have the most scored goals (35) in Liga Nacional
  • Motagua have the most dropped points from leading position (27) in Liga Nacional
  • Motagua have the most matches over the total-line (24) in Liga Nacional

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Olimpia 18 11 5 2 25 8 9 6 2 1 15 3 9 5 3 1 10 5 17 38
2 Motagua 18 9 5 4 32 24 9 4 3 2 19 13 9 5 2 2 13 11 8 32
3 Olancho 18 9 2 7 34 25 9 5 1 3 20 9 9 4 1 4 14 16 9 29
4 Real Espana 18 8 5 5 26 22 9 6 2 1 15 9 9 2 3 4 11 13 4 29
5 Victoria 18 8 4 6 28 25 9 6 0 3 14 11 9 2 4 3 14 14 3 28
6 Marathón 18 7 5 6 35 26 9 4 4 1 23 11 9 3 1 5 12 15 9 26
7 Vida 18 6 5 7 21 24 9 4 2 3 8 8 9 2 3 4 13 16 -3 23
8 UPNFM 18 4 6 8 23 31 9 3 3 3 15 14 9 1 3 5 8 17 -8 18
9 Honduras Progreso 18 2 7 9 19 31 9 1 4 4 11 12 9 1 3 5 8 19 -12 13
10 Real Sociedad 18 2 4 12 15 42 9 1 3 5 10 18 9 1 1 7 5 24 -27 10