Football tips: Aston Villa vs Burnley - predictions and betting guide

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Competition: England Premier League
Competition: Thu 17.December
Match begins: 18:00 (UTC)
Venue: Villa Park (42682 seats)

The home fans are expecting three points in this fixture, as the home advantage should be put to good use versus a struggling visitor. Aston Villa are in the 10th position while the guesting Burnley worry at 17th.

Insights:
  • Aston Villa have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Burnley have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.

Burnley could be less fresh than the hosts in this fixture, as they played a Premier League game only four sleeps ago. That game was also an away game, at Arsenal. It will be interesting to see if they are fully ready and rested for this match, and/or if some changes in the lineup is necessary.

W L L W L

Aston Villa form and stats

Aston Villa have collected 6 points from their Premier League home games so far after 2-0-3. Game days at Villa Park have recently become somewhat of a nightmare for Aston Villa as they have lost three home games in a row. It hurts.

Villa enjoyed a nice away win last time out, playing at Wolverhampton Wanderers's place. The match ended 1-0 with Anwar El Ghazi scoring. A defeat was the result before that one, 1-2 away at West Ham United.

Emiliano Martínez loved the game against Wolverhampton Wanderers. With a stunning seven saves the goalkeeper played a huge part in the 1-0 victory. Aston Villa made it very difficult for themselves, when Douglas Luiz got a red card in the 85th minute. The match was still a draw at this point. But even with this card, Villa won the match 1-0! The victory against Wolverhampton Wanderers came after Anwar El Ghazi's winning goal. The Villa manager D. Smith was very happy afterwards with the decision to bring on that player in the 75th minute. Some amazing scenes last match, when Anwar El Ghazi scored the winning goal four minutes into stoppage time.

The betting market estimate that the home team has about 55-60% chance of winning this match. There could be betting value if you think differently, so to help you here are the stats from Villa's earlier matches at home being 55%-60% favourite: Played one game, won one match, drawn zero and lost zero.

There will be little rest for Aston Villa after this match as they are travelling to West Bromwich Albion for a Premier League game in only three days.

With an average of more than two goals per home game in the league (12 in 5 games), Aston Villa's attacking play is working. Goals are flowing in at the wrong end for Villa with 11 goals conceded in these matches.

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Burnley form and stats

The hunting on away grounds haven’t been very fruitful for Burnley so far with only 5 points returning home. The records show 1-2-3 (win-draw-lose).

It's the second away game in a row for Burnley, but there's smiles all around after the 1-0 victory versus Arsenal (placed 15th) in the Premier League last time out. Preceding that match was the 1-1 draw at home vs Everton.

Burnley goalie Nick Pope was high and low in the Arsenal game, contributing six saves towards the victory.

As mentioned above, the odds for this match puts the home team as favourites. Perhaps this eases the pressure on the away team, who are capable of producing an upset here on a good day. Looking at earlier matches with similar odds and Burnley playing away, we found seven games. Results were one away win, two draws and four home wins.

The visitors are returning home after this fixture, hosting Wolverhampton Wanderers in just four days.

The attacking power of Burnley when travelling is not overwhelming with 4 goals scored from 6 league matches away. Burnley have conceded 12 goals in these games.

Head 2 Head

As for the last eight games between these two teams, there's four Aston Villa victories, three draws and one Burnley win. Over/under statistics; four of these games ended with three goals or more, four matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

VillaO. Watkins
O. Watkins
6 goals
Aston VillaJ. Grealish
J. Grealish
5 goals
Aston VillaE. Konsa Ngoyo
E. Konsa Ngoyo
2 goals

Aston Villa missing players

Burnley missing players

Aston Villa Burnley
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
10 5 3 Played P 2 6 11
6 2 1 Won W 0 1 2
0 0 0 Drew D 0 2 3
4 3 2 Lost L 2 3 6
21 12 2 Scored S 1 4 6
13 11 5 Conceded C 8 12 18
100% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 67% 82%
70% 80% 67% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 50% 45%
70% 80% 67% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 50% 36%
20% 40% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 100% 50% 27%
20% 40% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 50% 33% 18%
40% 60% 33% BTTS BTTS 50% 33% 27%
50% 20% 33% Clean Sheets C S 0% 50% 36%
10% 20% 33% Failed to Score F T 50% 50% 55%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
2.4 2 2.3 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.5 1.3 1.3
1 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
14.4 16 14.3 Shots (avg) S ( 7 9.2 9.1
4.9 6 3 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2.5 3 2.8
43% 40% 22% Goal Efficiency G E 20% 22% 19%
Key stats in Premier League this season:
  • Aston Villa have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Aston Villa have scored more than double the goals of Burnley.
  • Aston Villa haven’t played a single 0-0 game.
  • Burnley have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • Burnley have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Tottenham Hotspur 12 7 4 1 24 10 6 3 2 1 10 6 6 4 2 0 14 4 14 25
2 Liverpool 12 7 4 1 27 18 6 6 0 0 18 6 6 1 4 1 9 12 9 25
3 Leicester City 12 8 0 4 24 15 6 3 0 3 9 8 6 5 0 1 15 7 9 24
4 Southampton 12 7 2 3 24 17 6 4 0 2 13 8 6 3 2 1 11 9 7 23
5 Chelsea 12 6 4 2 25 12 6 3 2 1 14 7 6 3 2 1 11 5 13 22
6 West Ham United 12 6 2 4 20 15 6 3 1 2 9 7 6 3 1 2 11 8 5 20
7 Everton 12 6 2 4 21 18 6 3 1 2 13 10 6 3 1 2 8 8 3 20
8 Manchester United 11 6 2 3 19 17 6 1 2 3 3 10 5 5 0 0 16 7 2 20
9 Manchester City 11 5 4 2 17 11 5 3 1 1 11 6 6 2 3 1 6 5 6 19
10 Aston Villa 10 6 0 4 21 13 5 2 0 3 12 11 5 4 0 1 9 2 8 18
11 Crystal Palace 12 5 2 5 18 17 6 2 2 2 8 7 6 3 0 3 10 10 1 17
12 Newcastle United 11 5 2 4 14 16 6 3 0 3 8 12 5 2 2 1 6 4 -2 17
13 Wolverhampton Wanderers 12 5 2 5 11 16 6 2 2 2 6 6 6 3 0 3 5 10 -5 17
14 Leeds United 12 4 2 6 17 22 6 1 2 3 7 11 6 3 0 3 10 11 -5 14
15 Arsenal 12 4 1 7 10 15 6 2 0 4 5 9 6 2 1 3 5 6 -5 13
16 Brighton & Hove Albion 12 2 4 6 15 21 6 0 3 3 6 10 6 2 1 3 9 11 -6 10
17 Burnley 11 2 3 6 6 18 5 1 1 3 2 6 6 1 2 3 4 12 -12 9
18 Fulham 12 2 2 8 12 22 6 1 1 4 6 12 6 1 1 4 6 10 -10 8
19 West Bromwich Albion 12 1 3 8 9 25 6 1 2 3 5 12 6 0 1 5 4 13 -16 6
20 Sheffield United 12 0 1 11 5 21 6 0 1 5 2 8 6 0 0 6 3 13 -16 1

Aston Villa:
Burnley:
Premier League:
England:

Read more about Premier League

The English Premier League is the top level of the English football league pyramid. 20 teams play 38 fixtures each to see who tops the Premier League table. The Premier League is the most watched sports league in the world. Seasons run from August to May with most games on Saturdays and Sundays.