Championship prediction and preview: Middlesbrough modest favorites to beat Derby County

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Competition: England Championship
Competition: Wed 25.November
Match begins: 19:00 (UTC)
Venue: Riverside Stadium (34988 seats)

A home win is expected from this fixture if the league table is anything to judge by. The Middlesbrough fans are optimistic that the difference between 8th and Derby County's 24th place in the table will show on the pitch.

It's no vacation for neither Middlesbrough nor Derby County as both were in action only a few days ago. Expect some tired legs on the pitch and/or possibly some changes to the lineups.

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Middlesbrough form and stats

Middlesbrough, who have the fewest conceded goals (6) in Championship, have played 6 Championship games at their own stadium so far this season, resulting in 3-2-1 (wins-draws-losses).

Times are rough for the home team, having gone 279 minutes without scoring a league goal. M. Johnson was the last player to find the net.

The Middlesbrough fans got no joy from their last match, a Championship game also here at Riverside Stadium: A 0-1 defeat against Norwich City (placed 1st). 0-0 away at Brentford before that.

Some supporters pointed their nail-bitten fingers at Marcus Tavernier for missing a penalty kick versus Norwich City in the 50th minute. It's possible that a goal in that situation would have changed the outcome.

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Middlesbrough have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found 13 games) they have won seven times, drawn four and lost two.

There will be little rest for Middlesbrough after this match as they are travelling to Huddersfield Town for a Championship game in only three days.

Middlesbrough are certainly not overdoing their scoring at home in league matches, having created 6 goals in 6 games. Middlesbrough have showed great defending skills in these home games, allowing the opposition to score only 3 goals.

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Derby County form and stats

Derby County, who have the fewest scored goals (5) in Championship, have only collected 5 points from their away games in the Championship, after 1-2-3 (6 played). It's a growing despair in Derby County as they have recorded three consecutive losses.

Derby County are looking to quickly end their 346 minutes long goal drought in the Championship.

County are travelling again after losing away to Bristol City in their previous match (0-1). Preceding that, the 0-2 home loss versus Barnsley.

County are the outsiders in this one, but not by much. Their performance in similar games (being the away team and moderate outsiders) is two wins, three draws and ten defeats. From a total of 15 matches.

After this away game County return home for a Championship game against Wycombe Wanderers. That game is only three sleeps after this.

The visitors have scored 4 goals from 6 away games in the league, an average of less than one per game. 6 goals have been conceded by County in these games.

Head 2 Head

Head-2-head stats last ten meetings: four - four - two (Middlesbrough wins - draws - Derby County wins). As for goals, three matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), seven had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

MiddlesbroughG. Saville
G. Saville
2 goals
MiddlesbroughC. Akpom
C. Akpom
2 goals
Derby CountyM. Waghorn
M. Waghorn
2 goals

Middlesbrough missing players

Derby County missing players

Middlesbrough Derby County
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs top Away Total
12 6 2 Played P 3 6 12
4 3 2 Won W 1 1 1
6 2 0 Drew D 1 2 3
2 1 0 Lost L 1 3 8
9 6 3 Scored S 2 4 5
6 3 0 Conceded C 2 6 17
75% 83% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 100%
42% 50% 50% Over 1.5 O 1.5 33% 50% 58%
8% 17% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 17% 17%
0% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 0% 8%
0% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 0% 0%
33% 33% 0% BTTS BTTS 33% 50% 33%
50% 50% 100% Clean Sheets C S 33% 17% 8%
42% 33% 0% Failed to Score F T 33% 33% 58%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
1.3 2 1.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.3 1.2 1.7
0 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
142 75 30 Total Shots T S 33 72 136
35 22 7 Shots on Target S O 9 19 39
26% 27% 43% Goal Efficiency G E 22% 21% 13%
Key stats in Championship this season:
  • Derby County has the fewest clean sheets (1) in Championship
  • Derby County has the fewest scored goals (5) in Championship
  • Derby County has the fewest scored goals in the second half (2) in Championship
  • Derby County have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • Derby County haven’t played a single 0-0 game.
  • Derby County is in the worst form (0-3-3)
  • Middlesbrough has the fewest conceded goals (6) in Championship
  • Middlesbrough have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Norwich City 12 7 3 2 14 8 6 3 2 1 6 4 6 4 1 1 8 4 6 24
2 AFC Bournemouth 12 6 5 1 19 11 6 4 2 0 10 5 6 2 3 1 9 6 8 23
3 Bristol City 12 7 2 3 16 11 6 3 1 2 7 6 6 4 1 1 9 5 5 23
4 Swansea City 12 6 4 2 14 7 6 4 1 1 8 3 6 2 3 1 6 4 7 22
5 Watford 12 6 4 2 15 10 6 5 1 0 12 6 6 1 3 2 3 4 5 22
6 Reading 12 7 1 4 19 16 6 4 0 2 7 6 6 3 1 2 12 10 3 22
7 Stoke City 12 6 3 3 19 15 6 3 2 1 11 10 6 3 1 2 8 5 4 21
8 Middlesbrough 12 4 6 2 9 6 6 3 2 1 6 3 6 1 4 1 3 3 3 18
9 Millwall 12 4 6 2 11 9 6 1 4 1 5 6 6 3 2 1 6 3 2 18
10 Luton Town 12 5 3 4 10 12 6 2 2 2 6 8 6 3 1 2 4 4 -2 18
11 Brentford 12 4 5 3 17 12 6 2 3 1 9 6 6 2 2 2 8 6 5 17
12 Preston North End 12 5 1 6 16 14 6 1 0 5 2 7 6 4 1 1 14 7 2 16
13 Barnsley 12 4 4 4 14 13 6 3 2 1 8 3 6 1 2 3 6 10 1 16
14 Blackburn Rovers 12 4 3 5 22 15 6 2 2 2 10 6 6 2 1 3 12 9 7 15
15 Cardiff City 12 3 5 4 13 12 6 1 2 3 6 7 6 2 3 1 7 5 1 14
16 Huddersfield Town 12 4 2 6 15 17 6 2 1 3 5 6 6 2 1 3 10 11 -2 14
17 Birmingham City 12 3 5 4 9 11 6 2 1 3 6 8 6 1 4 1 3 3 -2 14
18 Queens Park Rangers 12 3 5 4 12 16 6 2 3 1 7 6 6 1 2 3 5 10 -4 14
19 Rotherham United 12 3 3 6 10 13 6 2 1 3 7 6 6 1 2 3 3 7 -3 12
20 Nottingham Forest 12 3 3 6 9 14 6 2 2 2 7 7 6 1 1 4 2 7 -5 12
21 Coventry City 12 2 3 7 12 23 6 2 2 2 8 12 6 0 1 5 4 11 -11 9
22 Wycombe Wanderers 12 2 2 8 6 19 6 1 2 3 3 6 6 1 0 5 3 13 -13 8
23 Sheffield Wednesday 12 3 3 6 6 11 6 1 3 2 3 4 6 2 0 4 3 7 -5 6
24 Derby County 12 1 3 8 5 17 6 0 1 5 1 11 6 1 2 3 4 6 -12 6

Middlesbrough:
Derby County:
Championship:
England:

Read more about Championship

The English Football League Championship (usually shortened to the Championship) is the second highest division in the English football league system. 24 teams play 46 fixtures from August to May, meeting each other twice. The Championship is the wealthiest second-level division in the world.