Championship match prediction: Little separates Derby County and Luton Town in quality

Days
Hours
Minutes
Seconds
Competition: England Championship
Competition: Tue 19.October
Match begins: 18:45 (UTC)
Venue: Pride Park Stadium (33597 seats)

Derby County have some lost ground to recover from their 24th place, and the job starts versus Luton Town. Read more!

Insights:
  • Derby County have the fewest matches over the total-line (2) in Championship
  • Luton Town have scored more than double the goals of Derby County.

It's no vacation for neither County nor Luton Town as both were in action only a few days ago. Expect some tired legs on the pitch and/or possibly some changes to the lineups.

D D W L W

Derby County form and stats

The story so far in the Championship for Derby County at their home stadium (Pride Park Stadium) is 2 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats.

County are anxiously hoping for a goal as it's been 237 minutes since the last one in league fixtures. (Scored by C. Forsyth). The County goalkeeper Ryan Allsop is looking to record 90 more "clean sheet" minutes as his team have now played 270 minutes without conceding a goal in the Championship.

An away draw last time out for County, facing Preston North End in a game that ended 0-0. Midfielder Graeme Shinnie was the best player on the team with a rating of 7.5 (out of ten) in that game. Shinnie hit four key passes, dribled past the opponent 1 of 2 times and had 66 successful passes (of 74 total).

The spoils were shared after 90 minutes before that, a home game that ended 0-0 versus Swansea City.

This is expected to be a close game, with Derby County perhaps considered small favourites due to their home advantage. Looking back at earlier matches similar to this one (expected to be close with County as a small favourite), we find 17 games. Derby County has won four of these, drawn seven and lost six.

There's a new game coming up fairly quickly for County as they are travelling to their away game against Coventry City in the Championship. That match is four days after this one.

The goals haven't exactly been flowing for Derby County here at Pride Park Stadium in the league, with less than one goal per game on average (5 from 6 games). County have showed great defending skills in these home games, allowing the opposition to score only 3 goals.

W D W L D

Luton Town form and stats

2-2-2 is the win-draw-loss statistic for Luton Town in their Championship matches away.

Luton Town have succeeded in guarding their own goal lately, led by their goalkeeper Simon Sluga. It's been 329 minutes since they last conceded in Championship.

Two travels in a row for Luton Town, whose manager N. Jones could celebrate last time after the Championship win against Millwall. Simon Sluga (goalkeeper) was the best performer with a rating of 8.62. Sluga saved a penalty, stopped the opponent with five saves and topped it up with a clean sheet.

A draw for Luton Town before that, at their own venue hosting Huddersfield Town (0-0).

As mentioned above, this is an open game with no clear favourite. We have found ten similar matches played by Luton Town in our archives, and the results are: six wins for Luton Town, two draws and two defeats.

A quick return to home after this game, as Luton are hosting Hull City in the Championship only four days away.

The travelling fans enjoy Luton's attacking play in away games, having scored 9 goals in 6 league matches away. As opposed to that, Luton have seen the ball go into their own net 8 times on the road.

Head 2 Head

Head-2-head stats last eight meetings: four - one - three (County wins - draws - Luton Town wins). As for goals, two matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), six had two or less.

Derby County missing players

Luton Town missing players

Derby County Luton Town
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
12 6 2 Played P 1 6 12
3 2 0 Won W 1 2 4
6 4 2 Drew D 0 2 5
3 0 0 Lost L 0 2 3
7 5 1 Scored S 1 9 20
8 3 1 Conceded C 0 8 16
67% 67% 50% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 83%
42% 50% 50% Over 1.5 O 1.5 0% 83% 75%
17% 17% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 0% 50% 58%
0% 0% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 33% 42%
0% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 17% 33%
33% 50% 50% BTTS BTTS 0% 67% 42%
50% 50% 50% Clean Sheets C S 100% 33% 50%
50% 33% 50% Failed to Score F T 0% 0% 25%
 
4.4 4.7 7.5 Corners for (avg) C F 4 5.2 5.1
4.7 4.5 3.5 Corners against (avg) C A 4 5.8 5.5
2.3 3 3 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 4 2.7 1.9
1 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
10.2 11.2 11.5 Shots (avg) S ( 8 10.5 12.2
3.2 3.7 3 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4 3.8 4.2
18% 23% 17% Goal Efficiency G E 25% 39% 39%
Key stats in Championship this season:
  • Derby County have not yet lost a game at home.
  • Derby County have the fewest matches over the total-line (2) in Championship
  • Luton Town have scored in all their away matches so far.
  • Luton Town have scored more than double the goals of Derby County.
  • Luton Town haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 AFC Bournemouth 12 8 4 0 20 8 6 4 2 0 13 7 6 4 2 0 7 1 12 28
2 West Bromwich Albion 12 7 4 1 21 9 6 4 2 0 11 4 6 3 2 1 10 5 12 25
3 Fulham 12 7 2 3 27 14 6 4 1 1 14 5 6 3 1 2 13 9 13 23
4 Coventry City 12 7 2 3 18 14 6 6 0 0 14 3 6 1 2 3 4 11 4 23
5 Stoke City 12 6 3 3 16 13 6 5 1 0 10 4 6 1 2 3 6 9 3 21
6 Huddersfield Town 12 6 2 4 18 14 6 4 0 2 11 9 6 2 2 2 7 5 4 20
7 Reading 12 6 1 5 18 19 6 4 1 1 12 8 6 2 0 4 6 11 -1 19
8 Queens Park Rangers 12 5 3 4 23 20 6 3 2 1 11 7 6 2 1 3 12 13 3 18
9 Blackburn Rovers 12 4 5 3 21 16 6 3 2 1 14 8 6 1 3 2 7 8 5 17
10 Luton Town 12 4 5 3 20 16 6 2 3 1 11 8 6 2 2 2 9 8 4 17
11 Bristol City 12 4 4 4 14 15 6 0 4 2 3 6 6 4 0 2 11 9 -1 16
12 Middlesbrough 12 4 3 5 13 13 6 3 1 2 10 7 6 1 2 3 3 6 0 15
13 Sheffield United 12 4 3 5 16 17 6 3 1 2 12 8 6 1 2 3 4 9 -1 15
14 Millwall 12 3 6 3 11 13 6 2 2 2 6 7 6 1 4 1 5 6 -2 15
15 Blackpool 12 4 3 5 12 16 6 3 0 3 4 7 6 1 3 2 8 9 -4 15
16 Nottingham Forest 12 4 2 6 16 15 6 1 1 4 6 10 6 3 1 2 10 5 1 14
17 Preston North End 12 2 6 4 12 15 6 2 3 1 7 7 6 0 3 3 5 8 -3 12
18 Birmingham City 12 3 3 6 10 16 6 1 2 3 3 9 6 2 1 3 7 7 -6 12
19 Swansea City 11 2 5 4 9 14 5 1 3 1 2 3 6 1 2 3 7 11 -5 11
20 Cardiff City 11 3 2 6 12 19 6 1 1 4 5 10 5 2 1 2 7 9 -7 11
21 Hull City 12 2 3 7 8 17 6 1 2 3 4 8 6 1 1 4 4 9 -9 9
22 Barnsley 12 1 5 6 7 15 6 1 2 3 3 6 6 0 3 3 4 9 -8 8
23 Peterborough United 12 2 2 8 12 25 6 2 2 2 9 7 6 0 0 6 3 18 -13 8
24 Derby County 12 3 6 3 7 8 6 2 4 0 5 3 6 1 2 3 2 5 -1 3

Derby County:
Luton Town:
Championship:
England:

Read more about Championship

The English Football League Championship (usually shortened to the Championship) is the second highest division in the English football league system. 24 teams play 46 fixtures from August to May, meeting each other twice. The Championship is the wealthiest second-level division in the world.