Championship prediction and data: Derby County small thought to overwhelm Bristol City

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Competition: England Championship
Competition: Sat 23.April
Match begins: 14:00 (UTC)
Venue: Pride Park Stadium (33597 seats)

This season has been challenging for Derby County so far, and the same description fits Bristol City. The bottom dwellers would do anything for some vital points here.

Insights:
  • Derby County have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Bristol City have the most dropped points from leading position (35) in Championship

Derby County have had a bad season and will be relegated from Championship.

This has all the signs of an exciting game with lots of action and energy as both participants are well rested since they last saw competitive action. Let's go!

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Derby County form and stats

Derby County have collected 40 points from their Championship home games so far after 11-7-3. When Derby County hosts teams that live in the bottom of the table (like Cardiff City, Birmingham City, Hull City, Barnsley, Reading, Derby County and Peterborough United), they have won 4 of 5 matches! County has recorded two wins in a row here at Pride Park Stadium, increasing their hopes of victory in this match.

Derby County faced defeat in their previous match, away at Queens Park Rangers (0-1). Cashin was "man of the match" with a rating of 7.65 out of 10. The defender Cashin won 3 of 7 duels.

Before that, Derby County had a home game versus Fulham which ended with a victory 2-1.

The home team are moderate favourites in this game. How does County handle that role? We have found five games in our database similar to this one, based on the home odds. The stats for these games are three wins, zero draws and two defeats.

Derby County has scored 29 league goals at home this season, in 21 matches. From these home matches, Derby County have conceded only 18 goals. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 2 of these goals has been conceded in their last three home matches.

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Bristol City form and stats

Bristol City have only collected 20 points from their away games in the Championship, after 6-2-13 (21 played).

Bristol delivered a 1-1 draw playing at home against Sheffield United (placed 6th) in their previous match. Massengo got a match rating of 8.05 in that game, top player of the team. Massengo dribled past the opponent 4 of 5 times and had 22 successful passes (of 26 total).

Prior to that result Bristol City won their away game at Stoke City. The scoreline was 1-0.

Bristol are the outsiders in this one, but not by much. Their performance in similar games (being the away team and moderate outsiders) is five wins, three draws and nine defeats. From a total of 17 matches.

Bristol City are scoring more than one goal per away game on average, having accumulated 26 away goals from 21 games (in the league). It's been trouble in front of goal recently, as only 3 of these goals has been scored in their last three away matches. For Bristol City, more than two goals on average per game end up in their own net. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 5 of these goals has been conceded in their last three away matches. When Bristol City is visiting a side on the bottom half, 5 of 6 matches have ended with three or more goals. These are matches against Cardiff City, Birmingham City, Hull City, Barnsley, Reading, Bristol and Peterborough United.

Head 2 Head

Bristol City - Derby County 1-0 was the scoreline in these sides' previous H2H fixture, earlier this season. Head-to-head data (for the previous ten meetings): Derby County won two games, three matches ended with a tie and Bristol City have five wins. Over 2,5 goals / under 2,5 goals: four / six

Top Goalscorers

Bristol CityA. Weimann
A. Weimann
19 goals
CountyT. Lawrence
T. Lawrence
11 goals
Bristol CityC. Martin
C. Martin
10 goals

Derby County missing players

Bristol City missing players

Total First Half Second Half
Derby County Bristol City
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
43 21 5 Played P 6 21 43
13 11 4 Won W 3 6 13
13 7 1 Drew D 1 2 10
17 3 0 Lost L 2 13 20
42 29 9 Scored S 10 26 54
49 18 3 Conceded C 12 45 74
88% 90% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 98%
63% 67% 60% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 86% 84%
40% 43% 40% Over 2.5 O 2.5 83% 71% 60%
16% 19% 40% Over 3.5 O 3.5 50% 43% 30%
5% 5% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 33% 24% 19%
51% 57% 40% BTTS BTTS 67% 62% 70%
30% 43% 60% Clean Sheets C S 0% 10% 12%
30% 10% 0% Failed to Score F T 33% 29% 21%
 
4.5 4.6 4.6 Corners for (avg) C F 4.2 4.2 4.1
5 4.8 5 Corners against (avg) C A 4.7 6.3 6.2
2 2 2.2 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.3 2.2 1.9
7 2 1 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
9.9 11 15.2 Shots (avg) S ( 11 9.2 10.2
2.9 3.5 4.2 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4 3.2 3.3
34% 39% 43% Goal Efficiency G E 42% 39% 38%
 
12.3 12.2 10.6 Shots against (avg) S A 12.7 14.6 14.2
3.9 4 3.6 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 4 5.4 4.7
Key stats in Championship this season:
  • Bristol City have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Bristol City have the most dropped points from leading position (35) in Championship
  • Bristol City haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.
  • Derby County have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Fulham 41 25 8 8 95 37 20 12 4 4 46 19 21 13 4 4 49 18 58 83
2 AFC Bournemouth 41 22 11 8 65 35 20 11 6 3 38 20 21 11 5 5 27 15 30 77
3 Huddersfield Town 43 20 13 10 58 45 21 11 6 4 31 22 22 9 7 6 27 23 13 73
4 Luton Town 43 20 11 12 61 47 21 11 6 4 35 21 22 9 5 8 26 26 14 71
5 Nottingham Forest 41 20 10 11 65 37 22 12 4 6 38 21 19 8 6 5 27 16 28 70
6 Sheffield United 43 18 12 13 55 44 21 11 5 5 33 15 22 7 7 8 22 29 11 66
7 Millwall 43 17 14 12 48 42 22 12 6 4 29 16 21 5 8 8 19 26 6 65
8 Blackburn Rovers 43 17 12 14 53 45 22 12 5 5 36 23 21 5 7 9 17 22 8 63
9 Middlesbrough 42 18 9 15 52 44 21 12 2 7 29 20 21 6 7 8 23 24 8 63
10 Queens Park Rangers 43 18 9 16 58 55 22 10 6 6 29 22 21 8 3 10 29 33 3 63
11 Coventry City 43 17 11 15 58 56 22 10 5 7 31 24 21 7 6 8 27 32 2 62
12 West Bromwich Albion 43 16 12 15 47 45 21 11 7 3 29 16 22 5 5 12 18 29 2 60
13 Swansea City 42 16 11 15 53 58 20 9 6 5 26 22 22 7 5 10 27 36 -5 59
14 Stoke City 43 16 10 17 54 48 21 9 4 8 28 22 22 7 6 9 26 26 6 58
15 Preston North End 42 14 16 12 44 47 21 8 10 3 28 23 21 6 6 9 16 24 -3 58
16 Blackpool 42 15 11 16 51 50 22 11 3 8 29 24 20 4 8 8 22 26 1 56
17 Cardiff City 42 14 7 21 48 64 22 7 3 12 21 28 20 7 4 9 27 36 -16 49
18 Bristol City 43 13 10 20 54 74 22 7 8 7 28 29 21 6 2 13 26 45 -20 49
19 Hull City 43 13 8 22 37 48 21 6 3 12 18 27 22 7 5 10 19 21 -11 47
20 Birmingham City 43 11 12 20 46 70 21 7 5 9 24 29 22 4 7 11 22 41 -24 45
21 Reading 43 13 8 22 54 82 22 7 5 10 33 43 21 6 3 12 21 39 -28 41
22 Peterborough United 43 8 10 25 38 83 21 5 7 9 22 32 22 3 3 16 16 51 -45 34
23 Derby County 43 13 13 17 42 49 21 11 7 3 29 18 22 2 6 14 13 31 -7 31
24 Barnsley 42 6 12 24 31 62 21 5 7 9 17 24 21 1 5 15 14 38 -31 30

Derby County:
Bristol City:
Championship:
England:
Table
  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Fulham 41 25 8 8 95 37 20 12 4 4 46 19 21 13 4 4 49 18 58 83
2 AFC Bournemouth 41 22 11 8 65 35 20 11 6 3 38 20 21 11 5 5 27 15 30 77
3 Huddersfield Town 43 20 13 10 58 45 21 11 6 4 31 22 22 9 7 6 27 23 13 73
4 Luton Town 43 20 11 12 61 47 21 11 6 4 35 21 22 9 5 8 26 26 14 71
5 Nottingham Forest 41 20 10 11 65 37 22 12 4 6 38 21 19 8 6 5 27 16 28 70
6 Sheffield United 43 18 12 13 55 44 21 11 5 5 33 15 22 7 7 8 22 29 11 66
7 Millwall 43 17 14 12 48 42 22 12 6 4 29 16 21 5 8 8 19 26 6 65
8 Blackburn Rovers 43 17 12 14 53 45 22 12 5 5 36 23 21 5 7 9 17 22 8 63
9 Middlesbrough 42 18 9 15 52 44 21 12 2 7 29 20 21 6 7 8 23 24 8 63
10 Queens Park Rangers 43 18 9 16 58 55 22 10 6 6 29 22 21 8 3 10 29 33 3 63
11 Coventry City 43 17 11 15 58 56 22 10 5 7 31 24 21 7 6 8 27 32 2 62
12 West Bromwich Albion 43 16 12 15 47 45 21 11 7 3 29 16 22 5 5 12 18 29 2 60
13 Swansea City 42 16 11 15 53 58 20 9 6 5 26 22 22 7 5 10 27 36 -5 59
14 Stoke City 43 16 10 17 54 48 21 9 4 8 28 22 22 7 6 9 26 26 6 58
15 Preston North End 42 14 16 12 44 47 21 8 10 3 28 23 21 6 6 9 16 24 -3 58
16 Blackpool 42 15 11 16 51 50 22 11 3 8 29 24 20 4 8 8 22 26 1 56
17 Cardiff City 42 14 7 21 48 64 22 7 3 12 21 28 20 7 4 9 27 36 -16 49
18 Bristol City 43 13 10 20 54 74 22 7 8 7 28 29 21 6 2 13 26 45 -20 49
19 Hull City 43 13 8 22 37 48 21 6 3 12 18 27 22 7 5 10 19 21 -11 47
20 Birmingham City 43 11 12 20 46 70 21 7 5 9 24 29 22 4 7 11 22 41 -24 45
21 Reading 43 13 8 22 54 82 22 7 5 10 33 43 21 6 3 12 21 39 -28 41
22 Peterborough United 43 8 10 25 38 83 21 5 7 9 22 32 22 3 3 16 16 51 -45 34
23 Derby County 43 13 13 17 42 49 21 11 7 3 29 18 22 2 6 14 13 31 -7 31
24 Barnsley 42 6 12 24 31 62 21 5 7 9 17 24 21 1 5 15 14 38 -31 30

More from England - Championship

Read more about Championship

The English Football League Championship (usually shortened to the Championship) is the second highest division in the English football league system. 24 teams play 46 fixtures from August to May, meeting each other twice. The Championship is the wealthiest second-level division in the world.