Primera B match prediction: Little separates Olmedo and Independiente Juniors in quality

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Competition: Ecuador Primera B
Competition: Tue 25.October
Match begins: 20:30 (UTC)
Venue: Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Olmedo will cross fingers that their home advantage is enough to get a good result from this back-breaking encounter, against high-powered Independiente Juniors.

Insights:
  • Olmedo have the the worst goal difference (-10) in Primera B
  • Independiente Juniors have the fewest dropped points from leading position (3) in Primera B

Relegation threatens Olmedo who should definitely be looking for some points here. Independiente Juniors are still fighting for top positions and their benefits.

It’s busy days for these teams as both were in action only a few days ago. There’s no rest for the wicked, or in this case; no rest for Olmedo and Independiente Juniors.

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Olmedo form and stats

6-5-6 (win-draw-lost) are the Primera B numbers at home for Olmedo so far this season.

Olmedo drew their last game, also a home match. Independiente Juniors (placed 2nd) was the opponent, 1-1 the score.

In the game before, an away victory match versus Guayaquil with a 2-1 scoreline.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Olmedo have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found 12 matches with the results: Won 4, drawn 6 and lost 2.

Olmedo are certainly not overdoing their scoring at home in league matches, having created 18 goals in 17 games. Olmedo have conceded 22 in these home matches. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 2 of these goals has been conceded in their last three home matches.

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Independiente Juniors form and stats

7-3-7 is the win-draw-loss statistic for Independiente Juniors in their Primera B matches away. Independiente Juniors are enjoying a nice run from their away games now, having played nine in a row without losing.

It's another away game for the visitors, as they travelled to Olmedo (placed 9th) in their previous outing. The match ended in a draw 1-1.

That result followed a home victory 4-1 versus Imbabura.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Independiente Juniors playing away and similar expectations, we found 20 relevant matches. Results were 8 Independiente wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats.

Scoring goals is the main ingredient in creating success in football, and not only at home. So far Independiente Juniors have scored 21 goals in 17 league games away. Independiente Juniors have conceded 19 goals in these away matches. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 2 of these goals has been conceded in their last three away matches.

Head 2 Head

Independiente Juniors - Olmedo 1-0 was the score in these squads' latest H2H game, played this season. (Independiente Juniors), (Olmedo) and (Olmedo) were sent off when these teams met previously this season. Will it be as aggressive this time? Numbers for the preceeding three meetings involving these two contenders are: two wins for Olmedo, zero draws and one win for Independiente Juniors. Over 2,5 goals: zero times; under 2,5 goals: three games. The matches between these sides have sometimes been a bit wild, having seen 3 sending-offs from the last three encounters.

Olmedo missing players

Independiente Juniors missing players

Olmedo Independiente Juniors
Total Home vs top Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
35 18 4 Played P 6 18 35
9 6 1 Won W 4 7 15
12 6 1 Drew D 1 4 11
14 6 2 Lost L 1 7 9
31 19 4 Scored S 7 22 43
41 23 6 Conceded C 2 20 31
89% 94% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 83% 94% 89%
66% 83% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 50% 67% 54%
37% 44% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 17% 39% 31%
9% 11% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 28% 26%
3% 0% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 6% 11%
49% 56% 75% BTTS BTTS 17% 39% 40%
23% 22% 0% Clean Sheets C S 67% 33% 40%
40% 28% 25% Failed to Score F T 33% 33% 31%
 
4.5 4.7 4 Corners for (avg) C F 3.3 4.9 5
4 3.2 4.5 Corners against (avg) C A 3.8 4.5 4.4
2.5 2.3 2 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 2.5 2.5 2.6
7 2 1 Red cards R C 1 4 10
 
10.6 10.1 11.2 Shots (avg) S ( 7.7 8.8 9.1
4.2 3.9 5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 2.7 3.6 3.6
22% 27% 20% Goal Efficiency G E 44% 28% 32%
 
9.6 7.6 10.8 Shots against (avg) S A 6.8 8.9 8.2
3.9 3.3 5.2 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 2.7 4.1 3.6
Key stats in Primera B this season:
  • Independiente Juniors have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Independiente Juniors have the fewest dropped points from leading position (3) in Primera B
  • Independiente Juniors have the most points (24) away in Primera B
  • Independiente Juniors have the the best goal difference (+2) away in Primera B
  • Olmedo have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Olmedo have the most conceded goals (22) at home in Primera B
  • Olmedo have the the worst goal difference (-10) in Primera B
  • Olmedo have the the worst goal difference (-4) at home in Primera B

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 El Nacional 34 17 9 8 50 34 17 11 4 2 31 13 17 6 5 6 19 21 16 60
2 Independiente Juniors 34 15 10 9 42 30 17 8 7 2 21 11 17 7 3 7 21 19 12 55
3 América de Quito 34 13 13 8 40 30 17 7 8 2 21 12 17 6 5 6 19 18 10 52
4 Libertad 34 13 11 10 38 37 17 7 7 3 21 17 17 6 4 7 17 20 1 50
5 Imbabura 34 12 8 14 44 47 17 8 4 5 20 17 17 4 4 9 24 30 -3 44
6 Chacaritas 34 11 10 13 29 34 17 10 2 5 17 10 17 1 8 8 12 24 -5 43
7 Guayaquil 34 9 13 12 32 37 17 5 8 4 19 17 17 4 5 8 13 20 -5 40
8 Manta 34 9 12 13 27 36 17 7 4 6 19 19 17 2 8 7 8 17 -9 39
9 Olmedo 34 9 11 14 30 40 17 6 5 6 18 22 17 3 6 8 12 18 -10 38
10 Puerto Quito 34 8 11 15 28 35 17 8 5 4 22 13 17 0 6 11 6 22 -7 35

Read more about Primera B

The Primera Categoria Serie B, often shortened to Serie B or Primera B, is the second-highest level of football in Ecuador. Like Serie A the competition format often changes every year. Currently it holds ten teams and the season runs from February to December in two stages.