A-League prediction and preview: Newcastle Jets modest favorites to beat Melbourne Victory

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Competition: Australia A-League
Competition: Sat 10.April
Match begins: 05:05 (UTC)
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium (33000 seats)

This match features two teams living in the basement of the A-League, Newcastle Jets holding 11th place and Melbourne Victory lying 12th. A good chance for both teams to improve their position.

Insights:
  • Newcastle Jets have the fewest scored goals (12) in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the most conceded goals (34) in A-League

Both teams have had enough rest since their last competitive action. Let's hope for an energetic game!

These teams have little in common geographically as Melbourne Victory have to travel 1000 kilometers to reach their opponents. The trip home will be especially long if the match ends in defeat.

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Newcastle Jets form and stats

Newcastle Jets's results here at McDonald Jones Stadium in the A-League have been very modest with 1 victory, 0 draws and 6 defeats. Regardless of arena the trend is looking very unhealthy for Newcastle Jets with their six defeats in a row. Not since the Melbourne Victory game, 48 days ago, have they avoided a loss. With Newcastle having lost three times in a row here, the pressure is increasing on the manager C. Deans.

The Newcastle Jets fans got no joy from their last match, a A-League game also here at McDonald Jones Stadium: A 0-1 defeat against Western United (placed 7th). Prior to that was the away defeat visiting Perth Glory (1-2).

The hosts are modest favourites in this match, with the bookmakers estimating the chance of a home win at about 50% +- five percent. It's interesting to look at how Newcastle have performed under similar circumstances, so here are some numbers: When modest favourites like this (we found nine games) they have won four times, drawn three and lost two.

The match schedule is unforgiving for Newcastle Jets as they have a new game in only three days, a A-League match thankfully also at home. Perth Glory are visiting.

The goals haven't exactly been flowing for Newcastle here at McDonald Jones Stadium in the league, with less than one goal per game on average (5 from 7 games). With more than 1,5 conceded goals on average, the Newcastle Jets defense is not exactly impregnable. 13 goals conceded from 7 games. You can find more goal stats on the Statistics tab above.

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Melbourne Victory form and stats

Melbourne Victory, who have the most conceded goals (34) in A-League, have only collected 2 points from their away games in the A-League, after 0-2-4 (6 played).

Melbourne might have something to prove in this game as they lost at home in their previous match. Sydney proved too strong as Melbourne Victory slumped to a 0-3 defeat in front of their own fans at AAMI Park. Preceding that game, the 1-1 draw paying a visit to Central Coast Mariners.

We have checked recent matches where Melbourne Victory have had similar odds to win. Win-draw-lose statistics from those nine games were one victory, zero draws and eight defeats.

The visitors have scored 4 goals from 6 away games in the league, an average of less than one per game. Melbourne Victory have conceded 13 goals in these games.

Head 2 Head

This is not the first time this season these parties meet, as the history books show this recent fixture: Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets 0-1. Newcastle Jets-Melbourne Victory H2H statistics last ten meetings regardless of arena: Newcastle four wins, Melbourne Victory five wins, one draw. four of these ten matches had three or more goals (over 2,5).

Top Goalscorers

NewcastleV. Yuel
V. Yuel
4 goals
Melbourne VictoryJ. Brimmer
J. Brimmer
4 goals
Newcastle JetsR. O'Donovan
R. O'Donovan
3 goals

Newcastle Jets missing players

Melbourne Victory missing players

Newcastle Jets Melbourne Victory
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
15 7 1 Played P 1 6 14
3 1 0 Won W 0 0 2
2 0 0 Drew D 0 2 2
10 6 1 Lost L 1 4 10
12 5 0 Scored S 1 4 13
22 13 2 Conceded C 4 13 34
93% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 83% 93%
67% 71% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 67% 79%
53% 57% 0% Over 2.5 O 2.5 100% 33% 57%
7% 14% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 100% 33% 43%
7% 14% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 100% 33% 29%
60% 57% 0% BTTS BTTS 100% 50% 50%
20% 14% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 17% 14%
27% 29% 100% Failed to Score F T 0% 50% 43%
 
0 0 0 Corners for (avg) C F 0 0 0
0 0 0 Corners against (avg) C A 0 0 0
2.3 2.6 3 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 3 3.2 3
0 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
15.3 17.9 17 Shots (avg) S ( 14 10.2 10.7
3.9 4.6 3 Shots on Target (avg) S O 6 3.2 3.8
21% 16% 0% Goal Efficiency G E 17% 21% 25%
Key stats in A-League this season:
  • Melbourne Victory have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored.
  • Melbourne Victory have the fewest points (2) away in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the fewest scored goals (4) away in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the most conceded goals (34) in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the most conceded goals in the second half (22) in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the the worst goal difference (-21) in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the the worst goal difference (-9) away in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have yet to win a game away.
  • Newcastle Jets have conceded at least twice as many goals as they have scored at home.
  • Newcastle Jets have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Newcastle Jets have the fewest points (3) at home in A-League
  • Newcastle Jets have the fewest scored goals (12) in A-League
  • Newcastle Jets have the fewest scored goals (5) at home in A-League
  • Newcastle Jets have the most conceded goals in the first half (15) in A-League
  • Newcastle Jets haven’t played a single 0-0 game at home.
  • Newcastle Jets is in the worst form (0-0-6)

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Central Coast Mariners 16 9 3 4 27 19 9 5 2 2 15 11 7 4 1 2 12 8 8 30
2 Melbourne City 14 9 0 5 30 17 6 5 0 1 15 7 8 4 0 4 15 10 13 27
3 Macarthur 15 8 2 5 19 19 7 3 2 2 11 9 8 5 0 3 8 10 0 26
4 Adelaide United 14 8 1 5 25 23 6 5 0 1 10 5 8 3 1 4 15 18 2 25
5 Western Sydney Wanderers 16 6 6 4 25 23 8 3 2 3 14 12 8 3 4 1 11 11 2 24
6 Sydney 14 6 4 4 19 13 7 3 2 2 7 6 7 3 2 2 12 7 6 22
7 Western United 13 6 2 5 21 19 7 4 2 1 12 7 6 2 0 4 9 12 2 20
8 Brisbane Roar 13 4 5 4 17 15 7 2 3 2 10 8 6 2 2 2 7 7 2 17
9 Perth Glory 13 5 2 6 24 27 5 3 1 1 12 8 8 2 1 5 12 19 -3 17
10 Wellington Phoenix 15 4 3 8 23 24 9 2 2 5 14 14 6 2 1 3 9 10 -1 15
11 Newcastle Jets 15 3 2 10 12 22 7 1 0 6 5 13 8 2 2 4 7 9 -10 11
12 Melbourne Victory 14 2 2 10 13 34 8 2 0 6 9 21 6 0 2 4 4 13 -21 8

Read more about A-League

The A-League is the top level of the Australian football league system. Seasons run from October to May. Ten teams play a regular season of 27 fixtures to create a league table winner and the highest placed teams qualify for a playoff. The league winner is called the “premier” while the playoff winner is the “champion”. There is no set system for relegation, unlike most leagues in the world.