Non League Premier: Southern South prediction and guide: Hendon modest betting favourite to overwhelm Winchester City

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Competition: England Non League Premier: Southern South
Competition: Sat 11.February
Match begins: 15:00 (UTC)
Venue: Earlsmead Stadium (3070 seats)

This is a vital fight in the lower part of the Non League Premier: Southern South, with both Hendon and Winchester City suffering more anxiety than pleasure. This match is a classic "six-pointer" with the home side positioned 19th and the guests in 20th spot.

Insights:
  • Hendon have the most dropped points from leading position (22) in Non League Premier: Southern South
  • Winchester City have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.

It's no vacation for neither Hendon nor Winchester City as both were in action only a few days ago. Expect some tired legs on the pitch and/or possibly some changes to the lineups.

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Hendon form and stats

Hendon have played 12 Non League Premier: Southern South games at their own stadium so far this season, resulting in 3-5-4 (wins-draws-losses). When Hendon hosts teams that live in the bottom of the table (like Hendon, North Leigh, Harrow Borough, Gosport Borough, Yate Town, Plymouth Parkway and Hartley Wintney), they have won 2 of 4 matches!

Hendon drew their last game, also a home match. Beaconsfield Town (placed 10th) was the opponent, 1-1 the score.

Prior to that, an away loss at Chesham United.

The home team are moderate favourites in this game. How does Hendon handle that role? We have found 8 games in our database similar to this one, based on the home odds. The stats for these games are 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats.

The match schedule is unforgiving for Hendon as they have a new game in only three days, a Non League Premier: Southern South match thankfully also at home. Hayes & Yeading United are visiting.

Hendon are certainly not overdoing their scoring at home in league matches, having created 15 goals in 12 games. 14 goals have been conceded. Hendon has at home met teams with this table position (low), four times. It has ended with less than 2.5 goals 3 of 4 times.

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Winchester City form and stats

The story so far for the visiting team on their Non League Premier: Southern South travels is 4 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats. Three might be a magic number, but there's been little wizardry in Winchester City's last three away games as they have all been lost.

Winchester City played 0-0 against Harrow Borough in their previous match.

A draw for Winchester City before that, at their own venue hosting Merthyr Town (2-2).

Winchester are the outsiders in this one, but not by much. Their performance in similar games (being the away team and moderate outsiders) is 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. From a total of 6 matches.

Goal-happy betting people should observe that 11 of this side's 14 latest league matches have ended with three goals or more.

Winchester City have another fixture that requires travelling in just three nights, a Non League Premier: Southern South game vs Poole Town. A gruelling schedule for the visiting team!

The travelling fans enjoy Winchester's attacking play in away games, having scored 20 goals in 13 league matches away. The Winchester City manager Davis has some worries about the defense as 29 goals have been conceded in these travels. When Winchester City is visiting a side on the bottom half, 3 of 4 matches have ended with three or more goals. These are matches against North Leigh, Harrow Borough, Winchester City, Gosport Borough, Yate Town, Plymouth Parkway and Hartley Wintney.

Head 2 Head

This isn't the first time these two sides face each other this campaign, as the records show this recent fixture: Winchester City - Hendon 1-1.

Hendon missing players

Winchester City missing players

Hendon Winchester City
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs low Away Total
25 12 4 Played P 4 13 27
6 3 2 Won W 1 4 5
7 5 0 Drew D 3 3 10
12 4 2 Lost L 0 6 12
34 15 5 Scored S 10 20 34
46 14 3 Conceded C 8 29 51
92% 83% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 100% 96%
80% 67% 75% Over 1.5 O 1.5 100% 92% 85%
52% 33% 25% Over 2.5 O 2.5 75% 85% 67%
40% 25% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 75% 46% 37%
32% 17% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 50% 23% 15%
56% 42% 0% BTTS BTTS 100% 77% 74%
24% 42% 50% Clean Sheets C S 0% 8% 7%
28% 33% 50% Failed to Score F T 0% 15% 22%
 
4.9 6.6 5 Corners for (avg) C F 4.7 2.9 3.2
4 3 1 Corners against (avg) C A 5.3 5.2 5.1
1.8 1.4 0.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.7 1.9 2
2 0 0 Red cards R C 0 0 1
 
7.6 10.2 8.5 Shots (avg) S ( 12 8.4 8.8
2.8 3.2 3.5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 6 4.1 4.3
36% 38% 43% Goal Efficiency G E 44% 42% 41%
 
9.1 7 4.5 Shots against (avg) S A 10.3 10.5 10.3
4.4 3.4 2.5 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 5.3 5.2 5.3
Key stats in Non League Premier: Southern South this season:
  • Hendon have the most dropped points from leading position (22) in Non League Premier: Southern South
  • Hendon have won at least twice as many corners as they have conceded at home.
  • Hendon have won significantly more corners at home than away.
  • Winchester City have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Winchester City haven’t played a single 0-0 game away.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Weston-super-Mare 25 19 3 3 64 16 12 10 0 2 33 8 13 9 3 1 31 8 48 60
2 Truro City 26 17 7 2 59 23 13 9 4 0 33 6 13 8 3 2 26 17 36 58
3 Chesham United 26 17 5 4 55 33 12 9 2 1 24 13 14 8 3 3 31 20 22 56
4 Bracknell Town 23 13 6 4 56 34 12 6 4 2 29 16 11 7 2 2 27 18 22 45
5 Poole Town 25 12 6 7 50 37 11 5 3 3 25 19 14 7 3 4 25 18 13 42
6 Metropolitan Police FC 25 13 3 9 44 36 11 7 0 4 18 14 14 6 3 5 26 22 8 42
7 Dorchester Town 27 12 4 11 39 45 14 9 0 5 25 22 13 3 4 6 14 23 -6 40
8 Merthyr Town 26 11 6 9 50 39 14 6 1 7 31 25 12 5 5 2 19 14 11 39
9 Hayes & Yeading United 25 11 6 8 51 41 13 7 3 3 27 17 12 4 3 5 24 24 10 39
10 Beaconsfield Town 28 10 8 10 46 42 15 7 2 6 28 24 13 3 6 4 18 18 4 38
11 Swindon Supermarine 24 11 5 8 45 42 13 8 3 2 26 17 11 3 2 6 19 25 3 38
12 Hanwell Town 27 11 4 12 40 41 14 8 1 5 26 18 13 3 3 7 14 23 -1 37
13 Tiverton Town 26 10 5 11 40 44 14 6 4 4 24 22 12 4 1 7 16 22 -4 35
14 Salisbury 28 10 3 15 35 47 14 4 2 8 16 26 14 6 1 7 19 21 -12 33
15 Gosport Borough 28 9 3 16 46 60 14 6 2 6 26 28 14 3 1 10 20 32 -14 30
16 Plymouth Parkway 22 8 5 9 37 37 10 5 3 2 27 15 12 3 2 7 10 22 0 29
17 Yate Town 29 7 7 15 36 63 14 3 5 6 22 31 15 4 2 9 14 32 -27 28
18 Harrow Borough 26 7 6 13 29 48 13 5 1 7 11 18 13 2 5 6 18 30 -19 27
19 Hendon 25 6 7 12 34 46 12 3 5 4 15 14 13 3 2 8 19 32 -12 25
20 Winchester City 27 5 10 12 34 51 14 1 7 6 14 22 13 4 3 6 20 29 -17 25
21 Hartley Wintney 29 6 3 20 32 62 15 4 3 8 22 30 14 2 0 12 10 32 -30 21
22 North Leigh 27 4 4 19 25 60 13 3 3 7 16 24 14 1 1 12 9 36 -35 16