Championship match prediction: Little separates Stoke City and Millwall in quality

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Competition: England Championship
Competition: Sat 19.March
Match begins: 15:00 (UTC)
Venue: Bet365 Stadium (30089 seats)

We've seen boom and bust for these two participants so far this season, occupying positions near the midpoint of the Championship table. Here's the Stoke City - Millwall latest:

Insights:
  • Stoke City have the most dropped points from leading position (30) in Championship
  • Millwall is in the best form (4-2-0) in Championship

It’s busy days for these teams as both were in action only a few days ago. There’s no rest for the wicked, or in this case; no rest for Stoke City and Millwall.

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Stoke City form and stats

When playing at home in the Championship, Stoke City have managed 7 wins, 4 draws and suffered 7 defeats from 18 games. Two defeats in a row at home hurts for Stoke City, their manager O'Neill and the supporters. There are certain expectations for improvement.

Stoke are hoping to put things right at home after a defeat in their previous match, the score 1-2 away versus Cardiff City. Baker (midfield was the top team player in that game with a rating of 7.43/10. Baker scored one goal, hit one key pass, dribled past the opponent 2 of 2 times and had 42 successful passes (of 44 total).

Before that, Stoke City played out a draw 2-2 when visiting Peterborough United.

The bookmakers consider this a fairly even contest. One could say only the home advantage separates the teams. It could be relevant to look at how Stoke City have performed in matches similar to this (as small favourites). Our database has found eleven matches with the results: Won two, drawn four and lost five.

The Stoke fans would probably like to see some more goals scored at their own stadium in the league, the tally being 25 in 18 matches. On the other hand, Stoke City have conceded 21 goals.

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Millwall form and stats

The visitors are W5-D6-L7 on the road this term. That's in the Championship.

The Millwall goalkeeper Bartosz Bialkowski is collecting clean sheets like a laundry worker. It's been 452 league minutes without conceding a goal, and counting.

The followers enjoyed Millwall's previous fixture versus Huddersfield Town (placed 3rd), a 2-0 win played at home. Attacker Afobe got a player rating of 8.12 in the game. "Man of the match" Afobe scored two goals, hit the woodwork two (!) times, hit two key passes and dribled past the opponent 1 of 1 times.

Ahead of that game was the 0-0 draw at home against Middlesbrough.

As mentioned above, this is an open game with no clear favourite. We have found 16 similar matches played by Millwall in our archives, and the results are: four wins for Millwall, four draws and eight defeats.

The visitors have scored 16 goals from 18 away games in the league, an average of less than one per game. As opposed to that, Millwall have seen the ball go into their own net 21 times on the road. There's been improvement defensively lately, as only 1 of these goals has been conceded in their last three away matches.

Head 2 Head

Millwall - Stoke 2-1 was the scoreline in these sides' last head to head fixture, played this season. As for the last ten games between these two teams, there's four Stoke City victories, three draws and three Millwall wins. Over/under statistics; three of these games ended with three goals or more, seven matches with two goals or less.

Top Goalscorers

Stoke CityJ. Brown
J. Brown
9 goals
MillwallB. Afobe
B. Afobe
8 goals
StokeL. Baker
L. Baker
7 goals

Stoke City missing players

Millwall missing players

Total First Half Second Half
Stoke City Millwall
Total Home vs mid Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
37 18 4 Played P 5 18 37
12 7 2 Won W 2 5 15
10 4 0 Drew D 2 6 12
15 7 2 Lost L 1 7 10
46 25 5 Scored S 4 16 39
44 21 3 Conceded C 3 21 34
95% 94% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 80% 89% 89%
70% 67% 50% Over 1.5 O 1.5 40% 61% 65%
49% 50% 50% Over 2.5 O 2.5 20% 39% 32%
19% 22% 0% Over 3.5 O 3.5 0% 11% 8%
8% 17% 0% Over 4.5 O 4.5 0% 6% 3%
54% 50% 25% BTTS BTTS 40% 56% 51%
30% 33% 50% Clean Sheets C S 40% 28% 35%
22% 22% 25% Failed to Score F T 40% 28% 24%
 
5.2 4.9 3.8 Corners for (avg) C F 3.4 3.5 4.7
5.2 4.7 3.5 Corners against (avg) C A 5.4 6.2 5.1
2.1 2.1 2.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.6 2.1 1.9
4 2 0 Red cards R C 0 0 0
 
11.7 10.6 13.5 Shots (avg) S ( 9.6 9.8 11.3
3.9 3.8 4.5 Shots on Target (avg) S O 3.8 3.3 3.8
32% 36% 28% Goal Efficiency G E 21% 27% 28%
 
10.1 9.3 7.5 Shots against (avg) S A 12.2 13.3 12.1
3.3 3 2.2 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 3 4.1 3.4
Key stats in Championship this season:
  • Millwall have played more matches over 2,5 goals away than home.
  • Millwall have won significantly less corners away then at home.
  • Millwall is in the best form (4-2-0) in Championship
  • Stoke City have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Stoke City have the most dropped points from leading position (30) in Championship

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Fulham 37 23 8 6 90 32 19 12 4 3 45 16 18 11 4 3 45 16 58 77
2 AFC Bournemouth 35 19 9 7 56 31 18 10 5 3 35 18 17 9 4 4 21 13 25 66
3 Huddersfield Town 38 17 12 9 51 40 18 10 5 3 27 17 20 7 7 6 24 23 11 63
4 Blackburn Rovers 38 17 10 11 49 38 20 12 4 4 35 21 18 5 6 7 14 17 11 61
5 Luton Town 37 17 9 11 53 41 19 10 5 4 32 19 18 7 4 7 21 22 12 60
6 Queens Park Rangers 37 17 8 12 53 45 19 9 6 4 27 17 18 8 2 8 26 28 8 59
7 Middlesbrough 37 17 8 12 48 40 18 12 2 4 29 16 19 5 6 8 19 24 8 59
8 Nottingham Forest 36 16 10 10 53 35 19 9 4 6 30 21 17 7 6 4 23 14 18 58
9 Sheffield United 37 16 10 11 50 40 17 9 4 4 29 13 20 7 6 7 21 27 10 58
10 Millwall 37 15 12 10 39 34 19 10 6 3 23 13 18 5 6 7 16 21 5 57
11 Coventry City 37 15 9 13 48 45 20 10 4 6 29 19 17 5 5 7 19 26 3 54
12 West Bromwich Albion 37 14 11 12 40 34 18 9 7 2 24 12 19 5 4 10 16 22 6 53
13 Blackpool 37 14 10 13 42 41 20 10 3 7 22 19 17 4 7 6 20 22 1 52
14 Preston North End 38 12 15 11 40 44 18 6 9 3 24 21 20 6 6 8 16 23 -4 51
15 Swansea City 36 13 8 15 41 52 17 8 4 5 23 20 19 5 4 10 18 32 -11 47
16 Stoke City 37 12 10 15 46 44 18 7 4 7 25 21 19 5 6 8 21 23 2 46
17 Cardiff City 38 13 7 18 45 56 20 7 3 10 21 23 18 6 4 8 24 33 -11 46
18 Bristol City 38 12 7 19 47 67 19 7 5 7 24 25 19 5 2 12 23 42 -20 43
19 Hull City 38 11 8 19 32 41 18 5 3 10 15 22 20 6 5 9 17 19 -9 41
20 Birmingham City 38 10 11 17 42 58 19 6 5 8 21 25 19 4 6 9 21 33 -16 41
21 Reading 37 10 6 21 43 73 18 5 4 9 25 36 19 5 2 12 18 37 -30 30
22 Barnsley 37 6 10 21 28 52 19 5 6 8 16 21 18 1 4 13 12 31 -24 28
23 Derby County 38 11 12 15 37 44 18 9 6 3 25 16 20 2 6 12 12 28 -7 24
24 Peterborough United 37 5 8 24 29 75 18 4 6 8 19 26 19 1 2 16 10 49 -46 23

Stoke City:
Millwall:
Championship:
England:
Table
  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Fulham 37 23 8 6 90 32 19 12 4 3 45 16 18 11 4 3 45 16 58 77
2 AFC Bournemouth 35 19 9 7 56 31 18 10 5 3 35 18 17 9 4 4 21 13 25 66
3 Huddersfield Town 38 17 12 9 51 40 18 10 5 3 27 17 20 7 7 6 24 23 11 63
4 Blackburn Rovers 38 17 10 11 49 38 20 12 4 4 35 21 18 5 6 7 14 17 11 61
5 Luton Town 37 17 9 11 53 41 19 10 5 4 32 19 18 7 4 7 21 22 12 60
6 Queens Park Rangers 37 17 8 12 53 45 19 9 6 4 27 17 18 8 2 8 26 28 8 59
7 Middlesbrough 37 17 8 12 48 40 18 12 2 4 29 16 19 5 6 8 19 24 8 59
8 Nottingham Forest 36 16 10 10 53 35 19 9 4 6 30 21 17 7 6 4 23 14 18 58
9 Sheffield United 37 16 10 11 50 40 17 9 4 4 29 13 20 7 6 7 21 27 10 58
10 Millwall 37 15 12 10 39 34 19 10 6 3 23 13 18 5 6 7 16 21 5 57
11 Coventry City 37 15 9 13 48 45 20 10 4 6 29 19 17 5 5 7 19 26 3 54
12 West Bromwich Albion 37 14 11 12 40 34 18 9 7 2 24 12 19 5 4 10 16 22 6 53
13 Blackpool 37 14 10 13 42 41 20 10 3 7 22 19 17 4 7 6 20 22 1 52
14 Preston North End 38 12 15 11 40 44 18 6 9 3 24 21 20 6 6 8 16 23 -4 51
15 Swansea City 36 13 8 15 41 52 17 8 4 5 23 20 19 5 4 10 18 32 -11 47
16 Stoke City 37 12 10 15 46 44 18 7 4 7 25 21 19 5 6 8 21 23 2 46
17 Cardiff City 38 13 7 18 45 56 20 7 3 10 21 23 18 6 4 8 24 33 -11 46
18 Bristol City 38 12 7 19 47 67 19 7 5 7 24 25 19 5 2 12 23 42 -20 43
19 Hull City 38 11 8 19 32 41 18 5 3 10 15 22 20 6 5 9 17 19 -9 41
20 Birmingham City 38 10 11 17 42 58 19 6 5 8 21 25 19 4 6 9 21 33 -16 41
21 Reading 37 10 6 21 43 73 18 5 4 9 25 36 19 5 2 12 18 37 -30 30
22 Barnsley 37 6 10 21 28 52 19 5 6 8 16 21 18 1 4 13 12 31 -24 28
23 Derby County 38 11 12 15 37 44 18 9 6 3 25 16 20 2 6 12 12 28 -7 24
24 Peterborough United 37 5 8 24 29 75 18 4 6 8 19 26 19 1 2 16 10 49 -46 23

More from England - Championship

Read more about Championship

The English Football League Championship (usually shortened to the Championship) is the second highest division in the English football league system. 24 teams play 46 fixtures from August to May, meeting each other twice. The Championship is the wealthiest second-level division in the world.