A-League match prediction: Little separates Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory in quality

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Competition: Australia A-League
Competition: Sat 01.April
Match begins: 02:00 (UTC)
Venue: Westpac Stadium (33500 seats)

Wellington Phoenix have enginereed 5 home triumphs so far this season, Melbourne Victory have won 2 away. Which team boosts their results after this meeting?

Insights:
  • Wellington Phoenix have the most dropped points from leading position (20) in A-League
  • Melbourne Victory have the fewest scored goals in the first half (7) in A-League

This has all the signs of an action-packed fixture with lots of action and energy as both participants are well rested since they last played a game. Let's get started!

L W W D W

Wellington Phoenix form and stats

Wellington Phoenix have collected 19 points from their A-League home games so far after 5-4-2. Hopes of three in a row are alive for Wellington Phoenix after consecutive victories at their own ground.

Wellington are hoping to put things right at home after a defeat in their previous match, the score 1-5 away versus Adelaide United. The first loss after going undefeated through four league rounds. Wellington Phoenix were outplayed and humiliated in their previous game, as mentioned in the paragraph above. They will need to reinstall their confidence before this one. Kraev (midfield) was the top team player in that game with a rating of 7.45/10. Kraev hit three key passes, dribled past the opponent 3 of 4 times and had 34 successful passes (of 39 total).

Previous to that game, a home match hosting Sydney in a game that was won 1-0.

This is expected to be a close game, with Wellington Phoenix perhaps considered small favourites due to their home advantage. Looking back at earlier matches similar to this one (expected to be close with Wellington Phoenix as a small favourite), we find 15 games. Wellington Phoenix has won 10 of these, drawn 3 and lost 2.

Take note: 17 of the latest 21 league games from this club have had at least one goal from each side.

A decent goal production from Wellington in their home games so far, with 21 goals from 11 league matches. 16 goals have been conceded.

W L L D W

Melbourne Victory form and stats

Melbourne Victory have only collected 8 points from their away games in the A-League, after 2-2-6 (10 played). Three consecutive losses in away matches means Melbourne Victory are growing more and more desperate for a good performance on the road.

Melbourne Victory go into this game after a win, the home game against Central Coast Mariners that ended 2-0. Those three points felt sweet as this team had gone three league matches without winning. The attacker Fornaroli got a match rating of 7.85 in that game. Fornaroli scored one goal, hit one key pass and had 19 successful passes (of 22 total).

The game before that, was lost at home, a 1-2 defeat against Western United.

So, this is expected to be a close game, an even contest. Looking at earlier matches with Melbourne Victory playing away and similar expectations, we found 11 relevant matches. Results were 4 Melbourne Victory wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats.

Betting related statistic: Both teams have scored in 8 of this club's last 10 league fixtures.

The visitors have scored 8 goals from 10 away games in the league, an average of less than one per game. In the opposite end, Melbourne have conceded 15 goals in their away games.

Head 2 Head

The newest past scoreline involving both these sides is the Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 3-1 played previously this season. H2H stats regardless of arena (last ten matches): Wellington three wins, two draws and Melbourne Victory five victories. As for goals, six matches ended with three or more goals (over 2,5), four games had two or less.

Top Goalscorers

Wellington PhoenixO. Zawada
O. Zawada
12 goals
Wellington PhoenixB. Kraev
B. Kraev
7 goals
Melbourne VictoryB. Fornaroli Mezza
B. Fornaroli Mezza
6 goals

Wellington Phoenix missing players

Melbourne Victory missing players

Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Victory
Total Home vs low Statistics Stat vs mid Away Total
21 11 2 Played P 4 11 21
8 5 1 Won W 1 2 6
7 4 1 Drew D 0 3 4
6 2 0 Lost L 3 6 11
34 21 6 Scored S 4 8 23
33 16 3 Conceded C 6 15 27
100% 100% 100% Over 0.5 O 0.5 100% 82% 90%
86% 91% 100% Over 1.5 O 1.5 50% 55% 67%
67% 73% 100% Over 2.5 O 2.5 50% 45% 48%
48% 55% 100% Over 3.5 O 3.5 25% 18% 24%
14% 18% 50% Over 4.5 O 4.5 25% 9% 10%
81% 91% 100% BTTS BTTS 50% 45% 48%
19% 9% 0% Clean Sheets C S 0% 27% 24%
0% 0% 0% Failed to Score F T 50% 45% 38%
 
5 5.3 3 Corners for (avg) C F 5.5 5.8 5.2
4.4 4.3 3.5 Corners against (avg) C A 4.8 4.2 3.8
2.3 1.8 1.5 Yellow cards (avg) Y C 1.2 1.3 1.9
4 2 1 Red cards R C 0 1 3
 
12.9 12.2 11 Shots (avg) S ( 13 14.2 12.8
5 4.7 6 Shots on Target (avg) S O 4.5 4 4.1
32% 40% 50% Goal Efficiency G E 22% 18% 26%
 
13.4 13.8 11.5 Shots against (avg) S A 7.8 9.9 11
5.4 5.5 5 Shots on Target against (avg) S O 2.8 3.5 3.5
Key stats in A-League this season:
  • Melbourne Victory have the fewest scored goals in the first half (7) in A-League
  • Wellington Phoenix have played more matches over 2,5 goals home than away.
  • Wellington Phoenix have scored at least twice as many goals at home as Melbourne Victory have scored away.
  • Wellington Phoenix have scored in all their matches so far.
  • Wellington Phoenix have the most dropped points from leading position (20) in A-League
  • Wellington Phoenix haven’t played a single 0-0 game.

  Total Home Away  
# Team MP W D L F A MP W D L F A MP W D L F A +/- P
1 Melbourne City 20 12 5 3 47 25 9 7 2 0 27 10 11 5 3 3 20 15 22 41
2 Adelaide United 21 10 7 4 44 34 10 7 2 1 24 11 11 3 5 3 20 23 10 37
3 Western Sydney Wanderers 21 9 7 5 31 18 10 6 2 2 16 6 11 3 5 3 15 12 13 34
4 Central Coast Mariners 21 9 4 8 40 31 11 6 2 3 26 15 10 3 2 5 14 16 9 31
5 Wellington Phoenix 21 8 7 6 34 33 11 5 4 2 21 16 10 3 3 4 13 17 1 31
6 Sydney 21 8 3 10 28 34 10 3 2 5 11 18 11 5 1 5 17 16 -6 27
7 Newcastle Jets 21 7 4 10 26 35 11 4 2 5 18 18 10 3 2 5 8 17 -9 25
8 Western United 21 7 4 10 27 37 11 4 3 4 13 17 10 3 1 6 14 20 -10 25
9 Macarthur 21 7 4 10 26 39 11 5 2 4 16 13 10 2 2 6 10 26 -13 25
10 Perth Glory 21 6 6 9 28 35 10 5 4 1 18 14 11 1 2 8 10 21 -7 24
11 Brisbane Roar 21 5 8 8 19 25 11 3 5 3 9 9 10 2 3 5 10 16 -6 23
12 Melbourne Victory 20 6 3 11 23 27 10 4 1 5 15 12 10 2 2 6 8 15 -4 21

Read more about A-League

The A-League is the top level of the Australian football league system. Seasons run from October to May. Ten teams play a regular season of 27 fixtures to create a league table winner and the highest placed teams qualify for a playoff. The league winner is called the “premier” while the playoff winner is the “champion”. There is no set system for relegation, unlike most leagues in the world.